Wenceslao: Double whammy

(File Photo)

EVERY time you gas up nowadays and see diesel fuel almost breaching the P50-per-liter mark, wouldn’t you remember that time only a few years ago when diesel fuel went as low as a bit over P20? Then the Duterte administration happened and some wise guys in the Cabinet conceived the “Build, Build, Build” program and the tax imposition called TRAIN (Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion). Then international oil prices soared.

But let me tarry a bit about the last point. Among the important components of TRAIN 1 (because there is supposedly a TRAIN 2 and even a TRAIN 3) is the higher excise tax imposed on petroleum products. About which I asked: What if global prices of crude rise and you are already imposing too high a tax on them?

Tagalogs have a term for me on that: “nagdilang anghel.” Prices of oil products are currently soaring. But actually my question then wasn’t difficult to ask. Oil prices are too volatile for the country to be sourcing a big chunk of revenues from the product. But that is water under the bridge.

Which brings me to a recent Philippine Star report titled “Philippine Suffers Worst Decline in Competitiveness Ranking” by Richmond Mercurio. From the 41st rank out of 63 economies, the country dropped to 50th, according to the World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY). The country fell on four categories: economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure.

Of those categories, what should concern the Duterte administration is economic performance. For a while the country’s economic managers painted a good picture of the economy until they admitted recently that prices of goods have gone up, although they are denying this is because of the TRAIN law.

The president’s think tanks have successfully consolidated President Duterte’s rule by controlling Congress and weakening the independence of the judiciary. It initially succeeded in silencing the political opposition and government critics. What they did not reckon is that they could stumble on economic concerns.

Government think tanks may not have noticed it or if they did downplayed it but the protest actions held during the May 1 Labor Day celebration was different from the previous years in that labor, the transport sector and the urban poor-or at least a chunk of the sector--are starting to show signs of restiveness.

On this, I recall a popular slogan in one election in the US: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Restiveness and disenchantment may not surface when people are deprived of their rights but not when there is a downturn in the economy. That should be more of the concern now for the Duterte administration, more so as the midterm elections near.

Aside from that concern is one that taps into the people’s fears. I am referring to China’s militarization of disputed territories in the West Philippine Sea. If our government mishandles it, instability could be sparked. China has put up missiles in the Spratlys and has sent its fighter plane to land in the nearby Paracels.

The Filipinos’ worries on China are real. This, plus concerns about the economy could be government’s double whammy that could weaken it.

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