WEATHER anomaly that has been warming many parts of the world, including the Philippines, looms as the El Niño Phenomenon already started its course in early September.

Forecasted by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), the dry spell may hit the country this year, bringing in long seasons of drought expectedly until first quarter of 2010, which Provincial Agriculturist Engineer Igmedio Tabianan said, would cause "extreme drought stress."

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Negrenses, especially the farm and sea workers, should embrace themselves against the possible ill effects of the dry spell "which is of domino effect," said Tabianan.

Among of these are infestations of dormant pests that of tungro, locust, black bug and red tide for aquatic source, heat strokes for human and animals, poverty and hunger as an aftermath of the tiempo muerto, or off milling season that started late of October this year.

OPA has proposed a P17-million budget two months ago and is for approval yet of the Provincial Government. The budget will be used in mitigating the ill effects of the dry spell.

Tabianan hinted that it would be too late for the budget to be approved considering that banning provisions by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) will be in effect starting November.

He said the budget will be used for the cloud seeding operation, purchase of open surface pump, seeds procurement for cash crops, vegetables as well as fries and fingerlings that will be coursed through the Food-for-Work of the Provincial Government.

Further, Tabianan stressed the need for the province's Committee on Agriculture to "fast track" mitigating measures by providing additional irrigational fund that will augment farming activities to ward-off spell effects.

He opined that dikes or small pipes in rain catchment areas in the province are other measures that will cushion the dry spell impact on farmlands.

Forecast

Based on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation discussion through its Climate Prediction Center issuing an Alert System Status, the dry spell is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, will reach its peak anomalies sometime during November-January.

At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist, it said.

Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength for a three-month Niño, it added.

Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia, it said.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), its National Weather Service, and their funded institutions.

Further, NOAA administrator and undersecretary under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere Dr. Jane Lubchenco said: "Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy."

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean, she said, adding that these nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

Trend

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia, NOAA said.

These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño's global effects on weather patterns, it said.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages the coastal and marine waters.

The US NOAA described the El Niño phenomenon as "an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe."

Among these consequences is increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific (Asia), sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia, NOAA said.

DA action

Early in September, the Department of Agriculture pushed upland rice production to cushion impending El Niño urging farmers towards a shift from the traditional lowland rice farming to an upland-based production in anticipation of the dry spell that is threatening the agriculture industry.

Meantime, an emergency meeting earlier with the Pagasa officials and DA Secretary Arthur Yap was held which tackled the government's plans on the looming El Niño phenomenon.

In anticipation of El Niño, DA is prioritizing farm-to-market roads, irrigation, extension services, loans, dryers, and certified seeds.

DA assured farmers that the government will intensify its preparations to help the agriculture sector deal with the possible return of the El Niño weather phenomenon.