May 10 a test to 'Mindanao vote'

THE low winning chances of Mindanawon bets in the senatorial race is raising questions about whether a "Mindanao vote" is political myth or reality.

The latest Social Weather Station (SWS) survey on the senatorial race showed only two Mindanawons, lawyer Gwendolyn Pimentel and outgoing Bukidnon Representative Teofisto Guingona III, as having a fighting chance for a berth in the top 12.

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Even as both are within the winning circle, not one of them belonged to the top 11 bets who consistently showed very high ratings.

Based on the May 2-3 survey, Pimentel and Guingona have to contend with six other bets for the 12th slot. If ever they are able to improve further their respective chances, and the ratings of the top 11 bets remain, there would be a possible repeat of the 2007 race when two Mindanawons, Pimentel's brother Koko and now Senator Miguel Zubiri battled for the 12th berth.

Of the current crop of 61 senatorial candidates, eight are born in Mindanao, although not all are residents in Mindanao at this time.

The result of the latest SWS survey on the senatorial race reflects almost mirrored a survey done by the Radio Mindanao Network (RMN) last March on the choice of Mindanawons for senator.

Seventeen of the 19 senatorial bets SWS found to be in the running for the 12 Senate seats up for grabs on Monday comprise the Mindanawons; senatorial choice.

The RMN survey was conducted in the 12 Mindanao cities where it has stations, with 120 respondents per area. The sampling areas are Cagayan de oro, Cotabato, Dipolog, Pagadian, General Santos, Iligan, Zamboanga, Davao, Butuan, Koronadal, Malaybalay, and Surigao.

In the survey, Guingona ranked 11th while Pimentel ranked 15th. No other Mindanawon entered the top 20 bets which showed statistical chances of winning Senate seats.

In the recent SWS survey, Guingona is 12th while Pimentel is 19th.

The Mindanawons' choice for senators, in the order of priority, are: Jinggoy Estrada, Pia Cayetano, Bong Revilla, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Franklin Drilon, Juan Ponce Enrile, Tito Sotto, Ralph Recto, Lito Lapid, Serge Osmeña, TG Guingona, Ruffy Biazon, Bongbong Marcos, Joey De Venecia, Gwen Pimentel, Gilbert Remulla, Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel, Alexander Lacson, Lito Osmeña, and Satur Ocampo.

For the May 10 political exercise, Mindanao has about 11.35 million voters, accounting for some 24 percent of the national total of which some 56 percent are in Luzon, and the rest in the Visayas.

The idea of a Mindanao vote largely hinged on the assertion of the island*s peoples getting a fair share of the resources, and participation and voice in the decision-making of the National Government.

Oft-cited premises are statistics on the share of Mindanao in the wealth-creation process of the country, its being the food basket, and its contribution to the needs for extractive resources amid the crumbs its localities are getting in terms of development funds.