UNA's 'confidential' poll survey leaks out-A A +A
Saturday, March 2, 2013
BASED on the June 2012 United Nationalist Alliance's (UNA) survey, the Cebu City mayoral race can go either way, with Mayor Michael Rama having a slight lead.
According to the "perception survey," 40.95 percent of the respondents preferred Rama while only 37.85 percent preferred Rep. Tomas Osmeña (Cebu City, south district).
The survey had a margin of error of three percent, which means that either Rama or Osmeña could win the 2013 elections.
Voter preference had five factors: experience, character/integrity, charisma/personality, financial readiness and political leadership.
Of the five factors, Osmeña only led in financial readiness.
"The results still point to a close call-a statistical tie or dead heat. For the most part, Rama may be able to obtain and maintain a bigger lead because of his charisma, character and being the incumbent.
He appears to have a strong advance in the senior citizen and legacy sections of the voting population," the conclusion of the survey read.
Reporters chanced upon the survey, which was supposed to have been done by the Philippine Institute of Applied Politics as commission by UNA.
Osmeña called the survey "inaccurate" because Bando Osmeña Pundok Kauswagan (BOPK) had its own survey commissioned. The organization has never been in a habit of releasing survey results but to answer the UNA survey, the congressman said, the commissioned survey had 11,000 respondents focused in the 51 urban barangays.
The UNA survey had 602 respondents from the industrial and services sector.
Osmeña claimed to have lost in only four barangays in the north and another four in the south.
Osmeña said he lost in Basak San Nicolas, Basak Pardo and Ermita in the south; and Lahug and Sambag I in the north. He would not reveal the other barangays, saying the organization can still do something about it.
Basak San Nicolas is the bailiwick of the Ramas.
Rama, for his part, also does not believe that Osmeña only lost in eight barangays because Team Rama has its own survey and the congressman is supposed to be lagging in more than eight barangays.
Councilor Edgardo Labella, Team Rama's vice mayoral candidate, said Team Rama's survey is done by an independent group headed by a former politician and the results were promising.
Osmeña said Labella is lagging in the BOPK survey especially in the south district. In the north district, Labella at least had a fighting chance against Vice Mayor Joy Augustus Young, who is seeking reelection.
Labella laughed off Osmeña's pronouncement.
"It's the exact opposite in our survey especially in the race for vice mayor where beyond our expectation, I am enjoying a comfortable lead," said Labella.
When asked what "comfortable lead" means to him, Labella said he just needs to sustain it and work harder and the vice mayoral seat would be his.
Osmeña admitted, though, that Councilor Augustus Pe Jr. is one of two BOPK candidates for councilor in the south district lagging in the surveys but that the two have considerably improved in the last survey.
The congressman would not tell reporters how the BOPK candidates are doing in the north district, except in the race for congress where he repeatedly said that talent manager Annabelle Rama has not made a dent in the candidacy of former congressman Raul del Mar.
In the UNA-commissioned survey, there were 602 respondents questioned and a slight majority or 246 respondents favor Rama, over the 228 that favor Osmeña. There were 109 people who were undecided.
The survey also noted that Rama's stronghold is the senior citizens vote while Osmeña's supporters are mostly in the 41 to 60 age range.
At the end of the survey is a disclaimer, "The findings herein constitute perceptions from which plans may be formulated to improve positioning and building up preference by both sides. These are not concrete parameters for election."
BOPK and Team Rama have both claimed victory in the 2013 elections but neither of the two organizations released the actual results of their surveys.
Published in the Sun.Star Cebu newspaper on March 02, 2013.