Mongaya: Noynoy’s popularity

BEING the consistent survey frontrunner, all other presidential bets have a common agenda of bringing down the popularity of Sen. Noynoy Aquino.

The issues are many: the sena-tor’s performance as a congressman and senator, his state of mind (autistic), Hacienda Luisita and Kamaganak Inc. There are also potshots at the historical contributions of both Ninoy and Cory Aquino.

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Within the context of the patronage nature of Philippine politics, Noynoy’s detractors also talk of his campaign’s lack of resources or his reform agenda that spelled not spending billions nationwide for vote buying. At the grassroots level, this means the ordinary voter won’t get P200 for voting for Noynoy.

Have they succeeded so far?

Today, critics crow of success in shooting down Noynoy’s popularity citing the two-percent dip in the most recent Social Weather Station (SWS) commissioned by Sen. Manny Villar.

The senator’s survey ratings likewise saw an 11 percent rise.

For Villar supporters, this means the senator is now within striking distance. A few months more of his television advertising barrage and the promise of patronage come crunch time, they believe their candidate will win.

Villar’s rise in the surveys will also have a bearing on the political computations of Lakas-Kampi officials in the provinces. One Cebu leaders, for instance, will definitely not support the Noynoy Aquino-Mar Roxas tandem. But if Lakas-Kampi candidate Gilbert Teodoro won’t rise in the national surveys, Villar will be a very attractive alternative. After all, the senator’s camp has not put up mayoral candidates against One Cebu.

With his intelligence, will Gibo meanwhile find a way to raise his popularity despite the deadweight of being the candidate of lame duck President Arroyo? Will he be able to match the impact of Villar’s massive advertising drive, for example? So far, the surveys spell success for Villar’s ads rather than those of Gibo.

On the other hand, will Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas be able to maintain their popularity? Consider the following:

l Sen. Roxas has renewed his advertising thrust with a much improved ad featuring him and Noynoy. With his resources along with the few but celebrity-studded ads of Noynoy, the advertising war with Villar and Loren Legarda’s camp should be interesting.

l Despite the so-called two-percent drop in the SWS survey, Noynoy has practically maintained his lead. Statistically speaking, the two percent of some 1,200 respondents does not count. Villar did not rise at the expense of Noynoy.

l This January and February, the country will again commemorate two Edsa uprisings and celebrate People Power.

l Come crunch time in May, the Liberal Party bets have politically entrenched supporters like the Belmontes of Quezon City, the Rectos and Gov. Vilma Santos in Batangas and the Osmeñas in Cebu with their own local machineries.

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It was fairly obvious. The effort of the Rep. Nerissa Soon-Ruiz camp to repair R. Colina St. sought to demonstrate her concern for Manduae City while at the same time point the public’s attention to the success of Mayor Jonas Cortes at non-performance.

Instead of harnessing the City’s vast resources to repair most of the dilapidated roads to show competence, Jonas myopically moved to stop Inday Nerry’s project in a dramatic, Ampatuan-like manner. Treating the police, especially the Special Weapons and Tactics (Swat) team, like his own private army, the mayor brought them to R. Colina St. to literally stop men from the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) from implementing the congresswoman’s road project.

Unfortunately for Mayor Cortes, Mandaue City is not a far off fiefdom where he could use the police to intimidate political opponents and their supporters but a modern urban center. In the end, he had to settle for the recognition of having city engineers also helping implement the project of Congresswoman Soon-Ruiz.

Soon-Ruiz did not only succeed in cementing R. Colina St. The clash literally focused, in a sensational way, media and public attention on the mayor’s neglect of Mandaue City roads.

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Was the Berame killing in Lapu-Lapu City political? Would it justify placing the city under Comelec control? The police investigation, on the contrary, pointed to a love triangle.

The political spin ran counter to reality.

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In Cebu City, the Bando Osmeña Pundok Kauswagan has consistently enmeshed the opposition with skirmishes over such issues as the basketball boards and aid, even as they strategically prepare a massive City Hall “political budget” for implementation before the May elections.

The opposition should better do something to stop or deflect this political budget rather than be overwhelmed by the tactical battles.

(www.inbetweencolumns.wordpress.com)