Mercado: Peering into the future

Saturday, December 17, 2011

IF it is to remain “Queen City of the South,” Cebu must make the decision now “to re-invent itself,” as weather events become more extreme, cautions a new study that peers 30 years into the future. “Now is the time to re-think, rework and re-tool…for a climate-defined future.”

Bank of the Philippine Islands Foundation and World Wild Life Philippines gauged the potential vulnerability of Cebu, Iloilo, Davao and Baguio. Findings are published in “Business Risk Assessment and Management of Climate Change Impacts.”

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El Niño disturbances, rising levels of ever-warmer seas, severe rainfall interlocking with prolonged drought, has shattered predictability, the report notes.
“Out-of-the-box thinking…can serve as rehearsals to anticipate possible futures.” Here is a summary of the Cebu analysis:
“Shipping is the jewel in Cebu’s crown.” Annual inbound volume increased sevenfold in two decades. Foreign trade tripled. Tourism arrivals increased 58 percent in five years. The 204 bank offices here report P168 billion in deposits. “Cebu is the best financially-resourced city to make new investments in re-engineering.”

City government gave itself “excellent ratings” in 8 out of 20 criteria. But crime solution efficiency was only 21 percent. More significantly, Cebu is tailender in human development when expectancy, literacy, education and standards of living are factored in. “Human capital is an adaptive strength that Cebu City needs to build up.”

Cebu City ranked third in vulnerability. Landslides are increasingly severe and 23 of 80 barangays encroach on vital watersheds. That includes the key Central Cebu Protected Landscape. “This is a glaring socio-economic sensitivity that calls for resolution.”

Saltwater contaminates aquifers collapsing from over pumping. “Like Iloilo, Cebu residents notice increased flooding.”

Unlike Panay, Cebu sits a fraction just above sea level. (The international airport at Mactan and barangays by seaside, could be swamped if sea levels continue to rise.) “If it can be paid for, redundancy in commercial air links is a critical ‘no regrets’ option for Cebuanos. To remain competitive, Cebu should consider investing in a second airport.” Probably Bogo?

Updating Cebu City’s rapidly aging fleet of ships and port facilities is critical. “The best strategic location diminishes in value without ready affordable access.”

Cebu’s development model is concentration of business activity. “This translates to a concentration of climate risk.” Needed is a long-term plan and development model that will diffuse climate risk. The city must invest in “climate-smart” infrastructure and technology.

That calls for “united political leadership” as a key element. (Was that a diplomatic nudge at the bitter partisan quarrel between Mayor Mike Rama and Rep. Tomas Osmeña?)

“Effective, efficient, responsible and transparent governance” is the second vital component. (Cebuanos were kept in the dark, for example, about Japanese yen loans for South Road Properties.)

Governance and water resources management are the two top development drivers. They will shape the city’s future. Government cannot do the job alone. “Public-private partnerships” and “business friendly policies and regulations” are vital.

Cebu’s leaders must look “beyond its fences.” They need to forge new development directions that lead to global integration in a climate-defined future.

(juanlmercado@gmail.com)