Review power forecasts, NGO asks energy dep’t.

DESPITE recent brownouts, the power problem in the Visayas may eventually become a case of having too much, instead of too little supply, a non-government organization (NGO) said.

The Freedom from Debt Coalition (FDC) asked for a review of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) demand and supply forecast, saying some flawed projections will lead to overcapacity and, depending on the terms agreed on with suppliers, higher prices.

“We are pushing for a multi-stakeholders participatory process in the demand and supply forecast,” said FDC-Cebu Acting Secretary General Aaron Pedrosa.

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The FDC said the projected establishment of power plants will result in overcapacity. This goes against the energy department’s projection.

Energy officials, in a briefing last month, said the Visayas grid will need an additional 2,150 megawatts by 2030, or double its present dependable capacity. But its “indicative capacity” so far will only be about 12 percent of that by 2019. (Indicative capacity represents projected supply from projects already revealed to the DOE, but which still lack requirements.)

The FDC pointed out that during the Ramos administration (1992-1998), contracts with independent power producers (IPPs) assured them of profits, under take or pay provisions, even if part of the supply went unused.

Pedrosa said the FDC is projecting an oversupply of electricity in the Visayas because of the three 82mw coal-fired power plants in Toledo City; two 100mw coal-fired power plants in the City of Naga; and a 164mw coal-fired power plant in La Paz, Iloilo City.

DOE 7 Director Joel Bontuyan said, however, that overcapacity will not be a problem.

Under the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (Epira), he said, power providers will be paid based only on the actual supply used.

“If you look at your electric bill, you can see that in the amount due, 80 percent will go to generation charges. This highlights how important new power generation companies are. Without Epira, there is no incentive for power investments,” Bontuyan said.

Bontuyan said there is no truth to the statement of FDC that there will soon be an oversupply of power in the Visayas.

“In fact, the power situation in the Visayas shows that there is power deficiency. Although we have enough reserves at present, there is an increasing power demand from newly created businesses,” Bontuyan said.