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WHY do most would be candidates not immediately jump into the fray and say, "Yes, I will run"?
As tentative as they can get: "I might run." "Not a remote possibility." "Six, in a scale of ten." And similar ways to hedge or dodge.
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Reasons vary: 1) The aspirant has doubts about what he wants; (2) He's not sure of winning; (3) Too early: Rivals will pounce on him and pre-campaign will cost a fortune even before he files his COC; (4) It's a good feeling to be coaxed and courted.
The would-be candidate is rarely eager or categorical. The "shyness" is deliberate: to add suspense and enhance curiosity, especially of media whose virtue or fault is to push the unanswered question and sort out the tangled issue.
It works most of the time. Reluctance whips up media interest, without which politicians wither as a green thing on parched earth.
Real purpose
Some candidates-to-be privately wrestle with the true purpose of running, as in stripped of platitude about public service. Enrich oneself while in office, live in a style that lawful income or fortune can't afford, help prolong a political dynasty's life, exploit one's lineage to deceased heroes?
Few of those who're bent on filing COCs but play coy give much thought about goal of service or plan of governance. What drives most aspirants is winning: reaping victory and recouping election expenses.
And whoever bothers about "Aristotelian confluence of events" ("probable impossibility" versus "improbable possibility") except those unbelievable characters in the film-for-TV "The West Wing"?