Quijano: Go to the body early, Nonito

Saturday, February 19, 2011

THE best cure for a lazy Sunday morning is always some good old attrition and bruxism. Today’s humdinger of a battle between Nonito Donaire Jr. and Fernando Montiel is sure to wake you up from the soporific state you are in, most probably brought about by having too many cold Last Rounds last night.

Here’s how the protagonists stack up:

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Nonito Donaire (25-1, 17KOs)

Strengths: Power in both hands, speed, versatility.

Weaknesses: Defense, stamina.

Style: A cerebral fighter who prefers to study his opponents for weaknesses before settling down into a rhythm. His one-punch knockout power makes him a threat to take out his opponent at any stage of the fight.

Best performances: TKO5 Vic Darchinyan (2007); KO4 Volodymyr Sidorenko (2010).

Fernando Montiel (44-2, 34KOs)

Strengths: Power, stamina, courage, technical skills.

Weaknesses: Can be a bit chinny, too mechanical in his movements.

Style: A boxer-puncher with terrific championship poise. He likes to impose his will on his opponents and unleashes textbook combinations. He can be a very good finisher when he senses his opponent is hurt.

Best performances: TKO4 Hozumi Hasegawa (2010); KO4 Martin Castillo (2008).

THOUGHTS. Donaire has been pining for a worthy sequel to his virtuoso Darchinyan demolition job, ergo the craving for a big-name opponent. But as they say, be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.

As feared as Darchinyan was, he was a technically-flawed fighter with an atrocious defense. A cunning, thinking opponent could beat him. Of course, his power will always be capable of producing vicious knockouts, but the fact he subsequently lost to Joseph Agbeko and Abner Mares conveys and confirms that the “Raging Bull” may not be that difficult to beat after all.

“Cochulito” will be a class above Darchinyan as he wields not merely punching prowess, but also the experience and skills to seriously test Donaire’s mettle.

His conquest of Japanese champion Hasegawa after losing the early rounds was damning proof of his ability to make adjustments mid-fight and find a way to win.

The cerebral Donaire’s versatility is what makes him difficult to beat, but then again his lack of focus might also prove to be his undoing.

Is he a boxer, a puncher, or counterpuncher? Is he orthodox or a southpaw?

The best strategy for him would be to hurt Montiel in the early rounds and build up an early lead. Investing in the body would be wise. It’s also not unlikely for him to score a stoppage in the middle rounds if the opportunity presents itself but if Montiel takes him into deeper waters, Donaire could be in trouble.

Still, with either fighter capable of landing a fight-ending punch at anytime, things could get interesting.

PREDICTION. The quintessential feeling-out first round favors Donaire Jr. as he is initially able to establish his reach advantage by sneaking in some jabs on the advancing Montiel who seems content in gauging the distance to properly launch his bombs.

Montiel stuns Donaire Jr. in the second with a right hand but the “Filipino Flash” wisely dances away from harm and by the end of the round is scoring well with some combinations.

Donaire Jr. gets bolder in the third and fourth rounds and lands some mean-looking uppercuts and hooks. Montiel scores with some robust hooks of his own but the faster Donaire Jr. wins the rounds with the more eye-catching artillery.

Montiel wins rounds five and six as Donaire seems to be tiring, but in the seventh round, a bloodied Montiel runs smack into a devastating left uppercut. His head snaps back and he falls backward, landing on his rump.

He manages to get up at the count of seven, but as action resumes, Donaire Jr. is on him like Donald Trump on a bumbling apprentice. The ref rescues Montiel from further damage.

LAST ROUND. It’s on Tetchie Zosa-Tan who recently celebrated her birthday. Cheers!

(jingo_quijano@yahoo.com)