THE resignation of Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), a move that he announced yesterday and which surprised even his party mates, can be viewed negatively or positively in the context of both his candidacy and the presidential polls setup in 2010. Chiz was among the leading presidential bets before this.

The positive view can be found in the second reason that Chiz presented on why he left NPC. “At lalong hindi dapat magdesisyon base sa dinidikta ng interes ng iisang grupo, partido o tao lamang,” he said. I don’t think this is Chiz’s main motivation in bolting from his party (is it money matters?) but it is one of the effects of his move.

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An issue pulling down Escudero’s candidacy has been his association with the party of former Ferdinand Marcos crony Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco. The trader may have the money, but I don’t think the sector he exploited and abused during the Marcos dictatorship has forgiven him. Thus, Chiz getting out of Danding’s shadow helps.

But it also means Chiz losing his main source of election funds and the political machinery needed to prop up his candidacy.

That is fatal to his pursuit of the presidency and could be the reason he postponed again the announcement of his plans for 2010. He even raised the possibility of running for vice president or not running at all.

Chiz’s move opens, therefore, many possibilities. With the NPC off his back, he is now free not only to decide on what he will do in 2010 but also to link up with other parties and personalities in pursuit of that decision. This is more useful if he runs for vice president considering that Gilbert Teodoro and Manny Villar are in need of a running mate.

I think, however, that Escudero bolting the NPC only makes it easier for the latter to forge an alliance with the administration coalition Lakas-Kampi. If that happens, the presidentiable (Teodoro) in need of a vice presidential bet will then bolt in with the vice presidential bet (Loren Legarda) in need of a presidentiable. So will it be Gibo-Loren?

A Villar-Escudero tandem is therefore also possible. The problem there is Vice President Noli de Castro, who has long been rumored to have agreed to be Villar’s running mate. Thus, if push comes to shove, either de Castro or Escudero will be eased out and will have to forge new alliances. That’s how fluid the situation is until the deadline of the filing of the certificates of candidacy next month.

(khanwens@yahoo.com/ my blog: cebuano.wordpress.com)