IF by chance this country gains the notoriety of electing as president a convicted plunderer, the bigger blame for that should be on President Arroyo. Of course, people who vote for a convicted plunderer should share the blame, but the President started the process by granting executive clemency to the convicted plunderer, Joseph Estrada.

Erap announced his candidacy for president in an old-style trapo rally yesterday, with Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay as running mate. But there was nothing new there.

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His intention has always been evident. And with a “We Bulong” brigade inspiring him and surveys placing him top three among presidentiables, Erap pushed forward.

Many of those who watched the news on TV the other day shook their heads when footage of Erap’s rally was aired. But if you are worried of the prospect of another Estrada presidency, stop the worrying. Erap’s candidacy for the 2010 polls won’t go far legally and even if he hurdles the High Court hump, no way would he get the voters’ nod.

Consider the Erap candidacy as a tease, or a painful joke with lessons we can mine. The Estrada case shows how damaging to our justice system the presidential power to grant executive clemency to convicts can also be. Then there’s the matter of mindless hero worship among some voters. Fanaticism in elections won’t bring us anywhere.

I am sure the Supreme Court will shoot down Joseph Estrada’s candidacy. If that happens, where will those inclined to vote for him in 2010 shift their allegiance? That is important considering that in the results of a recent Social Weather Station Survey, 18 per cent of the respondents were for Erap. That’s a sizeable addition to any bet’s voting base.

A simplistic analysis would be that since Erap is with the opposition, the shift would be in favor of an opposition presidential hopeful. So count President Arroyo’s anointed, Gilberto Teodoro, out. The leading opposition bets are Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar and Chiz Escudero. They could all be beneficiaries of Erap’s disqualification.

I find this interesting in the context of Noynoy’s seemingly insurmountable lead in surveys over the rest of the presidential field. How can, say, second placer Villar’s 37 percent catch up with Aquino’s 60 percent? That provides a reason for realignments and the forging of alliances among presidentiables lagging in the surveys.

Rumors about the administration coalition Lakas-Kampi linking up with Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) abound. This is possible because some NPC congressmen are supporting Teodoro. NPC’s best bet, Escudero, is fourth in the survey with 15 percent rating. That would boost Teodoro’s 4 percent rating if transferred.

Here’s another. Some people consider Villar a pseudo-oppositionist because of his previous links with the Arroyo administration. What if after Escudero gives way to Gibo, the latter also gives way to Villar, making him a common bet of Lakas-Kampi, NPC and Villar’s Nacionalista Party? Farfetched?

There’s no such term in politics.

Politics is as much a game played by strategists in the backrooms as it is an open competition participated in by politicians. Even after presidential contenders file their certificates of candidacy, the maneuvering behind the scenes will continue even during the campaign period. More so if Noynoy’s rating won’t go down despite the mudslinging.

(khanwens@yahoo.com/ my blog: cebuano.wordpress.com)