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Wenceslao: I don’t think Villar can recover

Bong O. Wenceslao

Candid Thoughts

Wenceslao’s road to the journalism profession was circuitous. While still with Southwestern University’s campus publication The Quill, he was offered a reporter’s slot in the Visayan Herald (now defunct). He worked part-time in dyLA. But a bigger concern drew away Bong, as colleagues call him: the fight against the Marcos dictatorship. Some seven years later, he was back, more serious about resuming his journalism career at dyLA. But as writing was his real passion, he left broadcasting to be a reporter at The Freeman. In 1997, he joined Sun.Star Cebu. As a journalist, he believes he is no longer out to radically change the world but merely to make a difference through his writing. His columns reflect his causes: freedom, nationalism, justice. Twice, he was awarded best in column writing by the Cebu Archdiocesan Mass Media Awards.

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WHEN Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano suddenly surfaces in a presscon after weeks of silence, it should be resbak time. Cayetano is with the Nacionalista Party (NP) whose standard bearer, Manny Villar, lost four percentage points in the recent Pulse Asia survey and who is now trailing top presidential bet Noynoy Aquino by 12 percentage points.

Cayetano is the male, though lesser, version of Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago. Have a target to hit? Just let Cayetano loose. Indeed, he immediately went to work this week. In an NP presscon, Cayetano coined Topak (Trapo, Oportunista at Kamag-anak, Inc.) ni Noynoy as being behind the smear campaign against Villar.

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“Topak” is a Tagalog word. I googled its definition and found “may topak” in the website “Tusong Matsing: A Filipino-English Dictionary.” May topak: a person with mental problem; a stupid person. “Topak ni Noynoy” is therefore like “Gikumot-kumot, sa dakong kamot”---it has double meaning. It’s euphemism for “autistic” or “Abnoy.”

The NP considered Villar’s ratings dip in recent surveys as a result of the issues raised against him, like the presentation of proofs that contradicted his claim of his being previously dirt poor and reports of him being the secret candidate of President Arroyo (thus, Villaroyo). To them, Noynoy and his Liberal Party (LP) are the issue churners.

A simplistic analysis does breed a simplistic response, thus the letting loose of Cayetano and the dredging of mud to throw against the LP standard-bearer. NP’s e-mail brigade is also busy circulating increasingly nasty claims against Noynoy, many of them rehashing the autistic claim. On TV, their pol ads now portray NP as genuine opposition.

Will the shift in strategy work? The next survey can answer.

But if you ask me, I don’t think it will. Voters’ thinking can be swayed by propaganda, true, but only to a certain extent.

That point is summed up by this Abraham Lincoln quote: “You can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time.” (Now, replace “people” with “voters.”)

Villar’s success in the ratings game can be largely attributed to his spending for campaign ads like there is no tomorrow.

But he so bombarded TV viewers with his jingles and claims—for a long time now and in big doses---that the point of saturation, or should I say monotony, has been reached. The NP ads can no longer offer anything new.

And while the effect of the intense propaganda drive has plateaued, the truth of the claims in his campaign ads is slowly but surely being exposed. Those ads presented a Villar covered in a shell of credibility. But credibility is a fragile material; once it cracks, it can no longer be restored. And his critics have successfully shattered that credibility.

Without that credibility, Villar and NP spin doctors cannot hope to regain lost ground by merely rehashing old issues against Aquino in the hope that it will make them look good. Surveys have shown that Noynoy’s support has remained solid. Instead, it is Villar’s base that has been proven to be fragile, built as it is on a campaign ads mirage.

What should worry Villar is not that Aquino will continue to pull away from him in the surveys; rather, it is that Erap Estrada is nibbling at his (Villar’s) lead.

(khanwens@yahoo.com/ my blog: cebuano.wordpress.com)


Published in the Sun.Star Cebu newspaper on April 9, 2010.


Feedback: Your views and reactions

Mr. Wenceslao analysis is

Mr. Wenceslao analysis is perfectly accurate. Alan Peter Cayetano had long time lost his glitter when the Filipino people early on discovered his wolf's clothing with Gloria Arroyo's manufacturer label. Cayetano, who won a senate slate on the guise of being antagonistic to Malacanang and a true-blooded opposition, did not take long to show his true color as a kiss-ass of PGMA and FG; earning him the ire of those who thought him otherwise; and, the hate of those who believed and voted for him. What's more, being a member of the senate inflated his head to unparalleled swell that made him think he is the messiah of troubled peers like Manny Vil-liar. It's a good thing Mr. Wenceslao brought this up and put this meglomaniac into the spot light. Hence instead of hating this bragaduccio more, let us just be thankful that because of him, Vil-liar would be despised more, mistrusted and disregarded. Afterall, Vil-liar walks on the shadow of an abhorable person of his choosing - Alan Peter Caya-talo.

Any thing that is excessive

Any thing that is excessive is harmful ... an overdose of TV jingles also apply. Where can a winner recover his 100s of millions ... or billion TV expenses ... from salaries? A BIG NO WAY!!! Indeed through corruption ... A BIG YES !!!

Is it impossible for voters to select the least expensive Presidential campaigner with good platform of governance? Then the motive of expenses recovery is moot and academic.

I really doubt it could happen.

Come election day, the

Come election day, the voters should vote what their conscience dictates--who will make a good leader of this ailing country because of government corruption, government officials whose personal interests and greediness top them all. People think, what could be the possible reason why politicians continue to seek positions in government even if their terms have expired? Those candidates who spend considerable amount of money during campaign period, do you believe they won't try to recover when in the position? It's time that voters and the people get control of the directions of where this country go. Go out and vote but be honest with yourself.

i think that villar's star

i think that villar's star will cease to rise in the surveys but noynoy's will go down due to the "brenda II" damage. and the change will go for erap because the masa will be swayed by lowly issues such as mental instability - and then they'll revert to erap, the old reliable, even if he got kicked out before. they cannot identify with gibo, gordon, or villanueva. when pressed with little options they'd stick to "their own kind". and erap has held on to this impression.

I totally agree to Mr.

I totally agree to Mr. Wenceslao's writings.

Villar's propaganda machine is like a finely tuned race car w/ nitro-booster that halfway in the race they already press the NO2 button and halfway through, slowly the other racers are gaining and ready to overtake Villar.

Villar is an opportunist, a typical trait of a businessman and a massive "gift-giver" (nee:bribe-giver). I can still recall the news article in one of the tabloids some years back about a then certain congressman who loves to "gifts and bonuses" to many of his fellow lawmakers so that they will vote for him to be the next house speaker and most especially to pass a bill regarding housing.

Had not the bill been approved, the villar's camella would have gone to oblivion.

aren't you people suppose to

aren't you people suppose to be apolitical? keep your blood behind your skin. you might expose its color.

Is it bad to tell the truth?

Is it bad to tell the truth? the truth always hurts, it hurts badly to Villaroyo...darating na po ang bukang liwayway na inasam asam ng masang Pilipino.. It Boomerang to them (NP)..
Tulad lang nangyayari sa davao City..si Nograles ayaw harapin ang katotohanan na di na siya kailangan ni pandak..so goodbye Nogie at goodbyye Gloria..

re: Mr Wenceslao's analysis

re: Mr Wenceslao's analysis on Sen Villar & Party

The analysis and opinion of Mr. Wenceslao on Mr. Villar is quite true and factual, Mr. Villar have presented himself falsely to the people who have never known him fully except for the scam/scandals on the C-5 road project where the senate reported of the scandal and the need for the Mr. Villar to return to the RP government P6Billions, ha? These signs are very dangerous to the people of who Mr Villar really is, ok? He is a "copycat" of Glo Arroyo and more corruptions and graft to come to RP if he gets the position, ok? Vote him down!

I truly believed that

I truly believed that branding yourself as poor would still count as a big issue in winning a certain position.Mr. Villar can't claim that.It's always been who he is,and what he can do to our country that matters.It's not throwing of millions to prove that you are indeed capable of running this country but you being a God-fearing person with no hint of corruption.How can Mr. Villar prove that his not what the people see in him? corrupt? liar? backstabber? black propagandist?tsk!tsk! too bad,he ruined himself in front of everybody.Who's to blame?

"He who haven't sinned cast

"He who haven't sinned cast the first stone."

I don't have to acknowledge that famous line to some bunch of self-righteous and hypocritical who made they're comments here!

One thing I logically and practically would understand and consider is that the only person who has not done anything any mistake are those who have not done anything at all.

Well, maybe twelve [12] is just too short for a legislator to at least sponsor even one bill! The former actor-turned senator Ramon Revilla, Sr., has even authored a bill that has benefited many who had their names erroneously spelled.

The presidency requires the will, the mind, the accountability to manage the whole country which is replete with every conceivable problems you can think of. Emotions and sympathy would hardly feed a churning stomach!

While Character and Competence are undoubtedly two great parameters for the presidency that every voter should consider, every voter should understand that "sleeping" on your job would land on the former; especially so when your job is just the highest position of the land!

Maybe we can all have our dreams come true when we begin to wake up!

If we put that JOB to someone who could even hardly make HIS OWN DECISION, definitely that person would be "HEARING VOICES!" from "THE OTHERS!"

"THE OTHERS" = the very group of people wanting a "SAINTLY FACADE" for all their ULTERIOR MOTIVES!

Did you NOT CONSIDER that NOYNOY's CAMPAIGN SPENDING = VILLAR's?

At least Villar is TRANSPARENT TO THAT! How about Noynoy? From Friends? Who are these Friends?