Neda sees 7 percent growth this year

THE National Economic Development Authority (Neda) has projected the economy to grow from 6 percent to 7 percent this year based on the improved business and consumer confidence particularly in the last quarter of 2012.

During the recent Cargo Economics Conference, Emmanuel F. Esguerra, Neda deputy director general, said that this growth is bigger than the 6.6 percent GDP performance in 2012.

As it is, the 2012 growth is already the fastest in Asia, next only to China.

What helped this performance is the country's low and stable inflation contained at about three percent, favorable interest rate and sound banking system, and a sustainable fiscal and external position, he explained.

On the supply side, the services sector accounted for 7.4 percent; industry, 6.5 percent; and agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing, 2.7 percent.

Of the services sector, transport, communications and storage represented some 7.5 percent in the 2012 GDP growth, followed by real estate and renting at 7.90 percent.

Government expenditure (11.8 percent), exports (8.7 percent) and household consumption (6.1 percent) fuelled last year’s demand, with exports reaching a record $51.994 billion or 7.6 percent growth over the $48.3 billion in 2011. The government is maintaining its ten percent export growth target for this year.

In December alone, exports rose 16.5 percent to $3.97 billion, reversing its 18.9 percent fall in the same month of 2011. This is despite a 5.5 percent decline in electronics shipments to $1.506 billion. Such performance was the best in Asia, with Hong Kong managing 14.8 percent growth; China, 14.1 percent; Vietnam, 14.1 percent and Thailand, 13.5 percent Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis Jr., president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. (PhilexportT) separately explained that there is a need to adjust the goal to 15 percent annually to attain $120 billion by 2016, the export target indicated in the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2013-2016, since last year’s growth is below the original ten to 11 percent target.

"The improving performance of the electronics sector will help us achieve this revised target," Ortiz-Luis noted, adding that our product diversification program under the PEDP can help push the exports of non-electronics products such as machinery and transport equipment, woodcraft and furniture and fruits and vegetables.

Meanwhile, Esguerra’s presentation also showed that Philippine imports grew by 4.2 percent mostly from ASEAN, which is attributed to the increasing benefits from this regional trade agreement. Other top Philippine import markets are China, US and Japan.