Admin bets dominate Pulse Asia survey in February

MANILA (Updated) -- Presidential cousin Paolo Benigno "Bam" Aquino IV and former censors chief Grace Poe-Llamanzares are among the nine senatorial candidates of administration-backed Team PNoy who have a statistical chance of winning if polls were held in February.

In the survey conducted by Pulse Asia from February 24 to 28, the two posted significant gains in voter support to propel them to the so-called Magic 12.

Aquino racked up 11.8 percentage points to improve from 13th to 15th places in January to 4th to 9th places the next month, while Poe zoomed from 13th to 16th places in January to 4th to 10th places in February after gaining 11.2 percentage points.

Re-electionist Senators Loren Legarda, Francis Escudero, and Alan Peter Cayetano are tied in the 1st to 3rd places.

Aside from Aquino, three candidates land in 4th to 9th places -- former Las Piñas City representative Cynthia Villar, San Juan Representative JV Ejercito, and Nancy Binay, daughter of Vice President Jejomar Binay.

Senator Aquilino Pimentel III, meanwhile, occupied the 4th to 12th places.

Rounding out the list of probable winners are Senator Gregorio Honasan II (37.9 percent, 8th to 13th places), Cagayan Representative Jack Enrile (36.6 percent, 9th to 15th places), Senator Antonio Trillanes IV (36.1 percent, 9th to 15th places), Aurora Representative Sonny Angara (35.1 percent, 10th to 15th place), former senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (33.2 percent, 11th to 16th places), and former senator Richard Gordon (32.2 percent, 11th to 16th places).

"Nonetheless, while the highest statistical ranking of these candidates put them within the winners' circle (8th to 11th places), some of them might end up not making it to the Senate given their lowest statistical ranking (13th to 16th places)," Pulse Asia said.

Weeks ago, the Social Weather Stations reported that nine out of 12 Senate seats up for grabs in the May 13 elections will go to bets backed by President Benigno Aquino III while three belong to the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).

Pulse Asia, on the other hand, listed nine candidates under Team PNoy (Legarda, Escudero, Cayetano, Villar, Aquino, Poe, Pimentel, Trillanes, Angara) and six UNA bets (Ejercito, Binay, Honasan, Enrile, Zubiri, Gordon) as likely winners.

A spokesperson for Team PNoy ticket noted that President Aquino's support has helped improve the administration candidates' ratings in the latest Pulse Asia survey.

House Deputy Leader Lorenzo Tañada III, Team PNoy spokesperson, said the President is the "best campaign manager of the whole ticket."

The Chief Executive was earlier criticized for joining the Team PNoy sorties while a standoff between Filipino followers of the Sulu Sultanate and the Malaysian forces has been ongoing in Sabah.

Legarda, for her part, said she is happy with her consistent position in surveys, but added numbers can still change in the months leading to the May 13 midterm elections.

Senatorial candidate Juan Edgardo Angara, who was 10th to 15th places in the survey, shared Legarda's views, saying he still has enough time to campaign and win in the elections.

Meanwhile, 5.5 percent of the 1,800 respondents did not indicate support for any of the 33 senatorial candidates, while 42 percent have a complete senatorial line-up.

Filipinos are also naming an average of eight preferred senatorial candidates during the face-to-face interviews.

Among the events that took place during the survey period were UNA's decision to drop Legarda, Escudero, and Poe as adopted candidates, mock elections in various parts of the country, salvage operations to extract the US Navy ship USS Guardian from the Tubbataha Reef, and the standoff between the followers of the Sultanate of Sulu and Malaysian authorities in Sabah.

"Survey rankings generally change from survey to survey based on issues, although not necessarily for all candidates," Pulse Asia chief research fellow Ana Maria Tabunda told Sun.Star.

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. (Virgil Lopez/Kathrina Alvarez/Sunnex)