Those Surveys are not Believable-A A +A
By Max Sangil
Monday, March 4, 2013
DO YOU believe in political surveys? Some do, but most people don't. In surveys conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, Ibon Foundation and many others, it is required by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) that the pollster disclose who pays for the conduct of a particular poll taking. In many instances, surveys are used as instruments for trending.
Did you know that in any political season, a subscriber of a conducted poll will have to pay P1.9 million? Meaning, the poll group may show some bias in favor of the one who is paying. As we often say, only mathematics is the exact science where one plus one equals two.
If big groups like SWS can be biased at times, I believe the results of alleged “independent” surveys conducted by their own men will only reflect the desired results of their bosses. I took survey and statistics in the College of Philosophy and Letters in the University of Sto. Tomas under then Professor Louie Reyes, brother of the famous pre- war actor Efren Reyes, and he showed how surveys can be manipulated to satisfy a client. But he also taught us how to conduct a survey that can only reflect a three percent margin of error.
Former Senator Richard Gordon, who is a candidate of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), does have a reason for getting mad at some results of conducted polls.
“Let us not hold elections anymore and just rely on results of surveys so we can save money,” he griped.
A survey can be conducted through random sampling or by face-to-face interview with the respondents. In the most recent survey conducted by SWS on the senatorial race, there were major changes among the first 12.
From the earlier surveys, presidential cousin Bam Aquino and Grace Poe were lagging. Then suddenly they surged, and are on the top 8. And UNA bets like Juan Miguel Zubiri and Jackie Enrile dropped to the precarious line. I bet you, the survey was paid for by the LP or any of their supporters.
I was expecting that after the bishop of Bacolod City in Negros Occidental came out with a list of the so- called “Team Patay” – which became a running story among major newspapers and was the subject of daily commentaries by popular radio commentators -- it should have in some way affected even a little bit the standings of Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Allan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes. Pero parang walang ano man.
Of course there is no solid Catholic vote, unlike the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC). Nonetheless there should have been a bit of a downslide of votes.
Our very own Archbishop Paciano Aniceto called on the faithful of the province to vote for senators who are pro-life. Clearly translated, the urging is for the parishioners not to vote for the “Team Patay”.
Published in the Sun.Star Pampanga newspaper on March 05, 2013.