Thursday, February 08, 2007
Aguilar: Imaginary victories
By George Aguilar
Rational Animal
THE Sulu and Midsayap incidents show that GMA's claim to peace and victory in Mindanao is still far from realization. Residents of Barangays Tugal, Rangaban and Sambolawan in Northern Cotobato still remain in various refugee sites while fierce fighting rages between government troops and some 3,000 MILF fighters. The road linking Midsayap and Datu Piang had been closed since last week and schools have been closed since January of this year.
All these as Bush praises Gloria for a job well done against some 200 ASG bandits holed up in Jolo. It took the AFP 6,000 troops and technical assistance plus fast patrol crafts from the US and Australian militaries to finally get Janjalani other top leaders of the Abu Sayyaf. Hence, the claim that GMA is the top anti-terror warlord of G.W. Bush in south East Asia.
But a closer look into the matter gives more reason for concern. Firstly, it had to take more than 5,000 troops to defeat hundreds of ASG in Jolo. This tells us that the ASG may have more support locally and internationally than it seems. The ASG, no matter how fierce, could not have lasted all these months fighting against thousands of marines, rangers, and Special Forces from the AFP without local support. Also, this shows that the AFP, despite more than 10 years of modernization, still don't know how to fight and win against small units and unconventional warfare that will be the norm in the 21st century.
Yet, Malacanang continues to boast about winning the war against the ASG. After annihilating the Abu Sayyaf the government claims that it will go after the NPA. They've been saying that for the past 39 years.
The NPA with 7,500 to 10,000 red fighters distributed in all 80 provinces nationwide and capable of fighting simultaneously in more than 100 guerilla fronts will be a different matter all together. The nationwide reach and nationwide support for the NPA makes this insurgent group practically impossible to defeat according to the Feb. 5 issue of Times Asia. I have reached the same conclusion weeks ago when I wrote in a column that Esperon's boast of eliminating the NPA by 2010 is hardly possible because one cannot fight a ghost army using conventional and therefore obsolete tactics. The only way to rid the country of the NPA is to get rid of poverty, corruption, and injustices.
Fighting the MILF and the MNLF will also lessen the government's capability of reducing the NPA to a non-threat. The military's 6th Infantry Division has warned Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) forces in Midsayap that the Army would launch an offensive should they refuse to withdraw from these villages. Fighting could erupt again Cotobato and in Jolo because the MILF wants to claim the farmlands in Midsayap and the MNLF held Gen Dolorfino and his team hostage. If the MILF refuse to return to their camps in Maguindanao the fragile cease fire between the AFP and the MILF may not last long. More than 3,000 MILF fighters are concentrated in Midsayap while another 1,000 MILF fighters from various towns of Maguindanao have been sighted moving toward the Midsayap-Datu Piang border.
Maybe it's the AFP that should withdraw at this point in time? But no, the government can hardly afford another embarrassment in Mindanao. The government is too confident, too cocky for their own good. They are guilty of believing in their own rhetoric about their imagined victories over "terrorism" down south.For more Philippine news, visit Sun.Star Iloilo. (February 8, 2007 issue)
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