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Monday, December 08, 2003
Nalzaro: Bandwagon effect
By BOBBY G. NALZARO
According to Webster’s New World Compact Dictionary, survey means 1) to examine or consider in detail or comprehensively; 2) a detailed study, as by gathering information and analyzing it.
Product manufacturers and distributors conduct surveys to determine how they fare in the market and to assess the standing of their competitors. Media owners commission an independent survey group to conduct a study to determine the most listened to radio stations, the most watched television channels and the most widely read newspapers.
Why? Because these media outlets will then use survey results to entice and convince media buyers to advertise with them. That is why we can hear merchandising plugs that hype some TV and radio stations as the number one in surveys and the leader in the industry.
And it really pays off. Because advertisers place their commercials in these top rated stations, these stations really get a bigger share of the advertising money.
Now, the election fever is here and some survey agencies are conducting polls purposely to determine the leading presidential and senatorial candidates in next year’s elections.
Maybe some of these surveys are commissioned by some political parties to determine and assess the acceptability, popularity, winnability and the real standing of their bets.
These past few days several survey results have been released and they showed different results on the standing of the presidentiables.
In the latest Pulse Asia survey, former education secretary Raul Roco got a favorable lead over the rest. Roco also leads in the Roper Survey Asia, whose respondents were limited to officers of more or less the top 700 corporations in Makati. This means that Makati businessmen have the full trust of Roco’s capability to lead this country, especially to propel our dying economy.
In the latest survey of the Social Weather Station, where the respondents come from a cross-section of the community, action king Fernando Poe Jr. and Sen. Noli de Castro, another masa crowd favorite, are tied in first place. Roco finished third, while President Gloria Arroyo and Sen. Panfilo Lacson placed fourth and fifth, respectively.
However, many ask these questions regarding surveys: Are these credible and do they represent the sentiments of the electorate considering that there are now 40 million registered voters?
What is 1,200 respondents compared to 40 million who will exercise their right to suffrage during the actual elections? The number of respondents does not even represent one percent of the total voters.
In surveys, researchers follow certain formulas to come up with scientific and comprehensive findings. And one can only question and refute their findings by conducting another survey.
Survey results might not reflect the real sentiments of the voting public and the official results of the elections. But we have to consider the margin of error and other intervening factors that would start from the campaign period until the actual counting period.
And what are these intervening factors? Well, we know the various strategies adopted by traditional politicians, such as vote buying, cheating and manipulation of canvassers in the precinct levels and by some unscrupulous Comelec officials.
Some of us might not believe in survey results but no matter how questionable these may be, the results still create a bandwagon effect on the popularity and winnability of a certain candidate. Sometimes these also condition the minds of the electorate that those leading in the surveys have a big chance of winning.
(e-mail addresses: Bobby@ sunstar.com.ph; bgn@cebu. gmanetwork.com. Cell: 09193181404)
(December 8, 2003 issue)
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