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Saturday, December 13, 2003
Roperos: Rough political waters
By Godofredo M. Roperos
Politics also
WHATEVER her political advisers will say to her, the fact remains that President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is navigating on rough political waters in Cebu.
The province is now recognized as the most densely populated province voter-wise in the nation, surpassing erstwhile frontrunner Pangasinan. And assurance of a political win here is an enormous psychological advantage for any presidential candidate from Luzon.
Often, other Cebuano-speaking provinces pick up Cebu’s lead.
The failure of the planned signing of a unification covenant between Lakas-CMD and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) last Wednesday may be an indication that opposing interests of political leaders adversely affected by efforts at unification are difficult to reconcile.
How, for instance, could Agriculture Undersecretary Junie Martinez, who has long been preparing to run for governor, just accept any conceived solution to the problem? Or how could Gov. Pablo Garcia and Mayor Ted Ouano take back their word to support gubernatorial daughter Gwendolyn as candidate for governor?
The plan to merge Lakas and the NPC in the province to strengthen GMA’s political fortunes is generally begging the kind of indulgence that Cebuanos, for our money, are not in the mood of granting simply because of past events that have “concretized” their political decisions.
What I mean is that, to a certain extent, a number of Cebu congressmen have earned the mark persona non grata from the average Cebuano voter. This is because they supported the highly controversial move in the House to impeach Cebu’s favorite son, Supreme Court Chief Justice Hilario Davide, Jr.
In our book, congressmen from the fifth and sixth Districts, with moral support from those in the third and first Districts, have earned the public ire and may lose in the May 2004 polls.
However, this prognosis is still highly speculative. The two lawmakers may still be able to recover politically and secure a reprieve from their electorate. This is not highly feasible although still politically possible through appropriate logistical support and effective strategy.
But this is precisely one of the reasons behind the strong push for the alliance since the five marked legislators are members of an NPC that is in dire search of redemption.
Of course, what happens if the unification plan will push through is still anybody’s guess. Those who understand the psychology of Cebu’s voters won’t give too much weight to last minute alliances.
A clear 35 to 40 percent of Cebu voters are independent minded. They are a solid swing vote that could generate surprising election results. Recall the 1971 mid-term elections when Liberal Party gubernatorial candidate Osmundo Rama won over NP’s Beatriz Durano.
The Duranos entered the campaign with a clear political advantage of having 45 municipal mayors on their side. It was a political contest whose result was already an accepted one weeks before the elections.
The “G’s” (gold, guns and goons) were all considered on the side of Mrs. Durano against the poor and struggling Rama. The result, in effect, was given even before the polls were held.
When the votes were counted, Mrs. Durano’s mayors won in 43 of 48 towns. But to the surprise of everyone, she lost Rama.
Earlier, during the presidential elections in 1969, Cebu’s beloved son, presidential candidate Serging Osmeña, Jr., lost to reelectionist president Ferdinand Marcos by a clear 43,000-vote majority. Of course, there was a loud cry of fraud and vote buying.
Yes, there was a flood of money, but there was no way of proving the fraud. What sticks in the mind is the percentage of swing vote that can go in any direction.
(e-mail: gmr@sunstar. com.ph)
(December 13, 2003 issue)
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