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Thursday, January 01, 2004
Wenceslao: New Year and the elections
By Bong Wenceslao
It’s Year 2004, finally. And should we celebrate? The way 2003 went, there are things that should worry us as we look ahead. That is the pessimist in me talking. But there should be hope, too—and that’s the optimist in me there. Overall, I’d go for that survival theory: Since we survived bleaker situations, there’s no reason we wouldn’t now.
We are supposedly in the Year of the Monkey, whatever that means. But I am not convinced as yet of the validity of using the alignment of the stars and other external factors in looking at our immediate future. It is the internal alignment, or the country’s socio-political and economic makeup that will determine what will happen to us.
The biggest calendared event this year is, of course, the May 2004 national and local elections. In the Philippines, elections are the playground of the ruling elite, what with election expenses soaring to dizzying heights. I consider this year’s polls crucial, however, in that it is happening at a time when conflict among the elite is intensifying.
The presidential elections now are no longer about voters choosing the most competent leader; these are already about which faction of the ruling class succeeds in seizing power by hook or by crook. In a sense, the current administration vs. opposition political battle is but symbolic of the widening divide between factions of the elite.
The conflict started when Ferdinand Marcos seized power for his faction; it came to a head in Edsa in 1986 when Marcos was toppled and another faction controlled Malacanang. Since then, the two factions have been at each other’s throats—“legally” through elections and “illegally” through Edsa 2 and “Edsa 3” and those coup tries.
Just look at the leading figures in the “administration” faction of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Raul Roco and the “opposition” faction of Fernando Poe Jr. and Panfilo Lacson. I mean, it’s not just an accident that the Marcoses and other minions of the old Martial Law regime are behind the candidacies of FPJ and Lacson.
The important question that should be asked here then is, will the elections be able to resolve decisively the conflict within the ruling elite? I doubt. Whoever wins, rest assured that the losing faction would resume the maneuvering to seize power, whether violently or not.
And that is, as I said earlier, what is worrying the pessimist in me.
But not all is bleak, however. While admittedly a big chunk of the other classes—the workers, farmers, students, professionals, small businessmen, etc.—have become indifferent or have left for foreign shores, there are still many who are trying to make a difference. There exists among the people, initiatives that may bear fruit in the long haul.
The impeachment of Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr., for example, showed that there are still forces that will come out and fight the good battle despite their overall disgust with politicians and the ruling elite. It is them that I will rely upon to make the correct moves when push comes to shove. Anyway, a Happy New Year to all!
(e-mail: cowens21@lycos.com; text: 0927-4912362)
(January 1, 2004 issue)
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