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Thursday, January 08, 2004
Mongaya: Political brew
By Anol Mongaya
IT seems like the national slates of both the administration and opposition have one guiding principle: to reconcile the so-called Edsa 2 and Edsa 3 forces. Just look at the mix of personalities.
The administration has Sen. John Osmeña and Rodolfo Biazon. It is also trying to recruit the feisty pro-Erap, Miriam Defensor-Santiago. Sacrificed were such Edsa 2 stalwarts as Agrarian Reform Chief Roberto Pagdanganan and Lakas-CMD spokesman Heherson Alvarez.
The opposition, on the other hand, is dealing with dissensions with the adoption of Sen. Loren Legarda as running mate of Fernando Poe Jr. Legarda is the reason why Santiago wanted out of the Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP) slate. Also with FPJ is Sen. Nene Pimentel, who voted with the anti-Erap minority in the impeachment trial. Alvarez, who filed his senatorial bid as an independent, is reportedly eyeing a spot in FPJ’s senatorial slate.
On second thought, I don’t think the purpose there is reconciliation. Rather, both camps just dropped principles for the more pragmatic consideration of “winnability.”
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A source within the Pagdanganan camp said he was optimistic about running for senator early last Saturday. But the political waters suddenly became murky later that day. Because he could not swallow in principle the decision of party leaders, he opted out of the senatorial slate.
I think Pagdanganan thought GMA would ask him to stay because of his track record of supporting her administration. Besides, he has long been open about his intention to run under the administration slate. Remember those “Obet” print and radio ads in the Visayas and Mindanao? Pagdanganan’s popularity rating in surveys even rose in November 2003.
Despite reports that he already decided not to run, people in his camp were told to wait until Monday evening. Unfortunately, his gambit failed. Pagdanganan’s people in Cebu were told his decision not to run became final by 8 p.m. Monday.
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While some surveys show that FPJ is more popular than GMA, the President enjoys the advantage of having better political machinery down to the grassroots level. Old political pros know that while voters in the countryside may initially favor one candidate, the camp that fetches them from their communities to the voting centers may in the end get the votes.
Without a province-wide political organization in Cebu province because of Senator Osmeña’s defection to the administration, how the KNP will convert FPJ’s popularity in the rural areas into votes still remains to be seen.
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But Osmeña’s inclusion in the administration senatorial slate has created kinks in the local level that may benefit FPJ forces, that is if they play it right.
The senator’s camp, for example, is insisting on its supposed commitment for former congressman Junie Martinez, who filed his certificate of candidacy for governor as an independent.
Yet, the senator failed to fulfill his promise to accompany Junie’s group when they filed their COC’s Monday. Somebody reportedly told Junie that the senator proceeded to a meeting in Barili after arriving from Manila.
I was told Junie’s camp suspects there is already a secret commitment among the Osmeñas to help John-john’s candidacy. After all, this has a precedent in 2001 when Junie was junked in favor of John-john.
While Junie, who has a province-wide political organization, has maintained his commitment for GMA, he is vulnerable to enticements by FPJ’s political operators in Cebu.
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In Cebu City, the effect of JHO’s strained relations with his cousin, Mayor Tomas Osmeña, and Lakas congressional candidate for the second district, Tony Cuenco, who is being challenged again by the senator’s protégé Totol Batuhan, still remains to be seen.
(e-mail: superbalita@ sunstar.com.ph or anol _cebu@hotmail.com; text: 0917-9761193)
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