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Friday, January 23, 2004
Antalan: The survey says
By Roger P. Antalan
COMMENTARY
Up until election day in May, expect all kinds of surveys and predictions to come. These surveys, or “fearless forecasts,” will proclaim the probable winners with minimal margin of error.
In this country, as anywhere else, it is next to impossible to have a very accurate survey with very minimal margin of error. There are just so many variables to consider, so many unknown factors that could change the predicted equations.
This is not to dismiss completely and disregard the established pollsters groups with their so-called tested and scientific methods of getting the right pulse of the voting public. Since surveys can only cover a limited number of respondents and not the total mass, the best that the surveys can do is provide a trend.
The first caution is given by a cynical writer who said that there are three kinds of lie: the true lie, the white lie, and statistics.
The best example of the third lie is the practice of having your own survey. The administration has its own survey, so too the opposition and the independent candidates. Most of the candidates will tell you that according to their survey, they will win.
To this, Andrew Lang commented: “He uses statistics as a drunken man uses a lamppost for support rather than for illumination.”
It’s the “bandwagon effect.” If a candidate can show survey results that he is leading, the hope is for the uncommitted voters to favor the “winning” candidate.
A favorable survey can, however, work against a candidate. Once, a frontrunner told some of the people that he was a sure winner, according to the surveys. “So if you don’t want me, then don’t vote for me.” He lost in that election.
A political observer said: “I don’t believe in surveys.” He never lost in an election and has become a living legend. But in doing so, he still used various strategies of getting into the hearts and minds of the majority of the people.
Recently, a rough survey, a straw ballot, was conducted in one local government unit. The barangay police had their annual gathering and around 1,000 of them attended. They were asked to choose from among four presidential candidates. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo topped the polls with 728 votes.
But that survey could mean many things. Still, the Barangay Police Laban sa Krimen is a masa organization. And each of them could influence from four to seven votes in their household.
One thing is certain, though. There will be many surveys to come, with each survey favoring certain candidates. So, it is still anybody’s ball game.
Anyway, here are two final reminders.First, we should not underestimate the masa. They are intelligent voters. Thanks to media exposure, ordinary voters even in the farthest corners of the rural areas can now discuss the pros and cons of each candidate, including the important issues involved.
Second, we should take all kinds of surveys with a grain of salt. The writer George B. Shaw had this to say about surveys: There is only one absolutely sure statistic, and that is: one dies.
(Roger P. Antalan writes for Sun.Star Davao)
(January 23, 2004 issue)
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