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Friday, April 30, 2004
Espinoza: Pollsters under attack
By Fred C. Espinoza
FIRST TIME. As far as one can remember, it’s the first time that groups conducting opinion polls have come under attack from political candidates. Senatorial candidate Frank Chavez has claimed that “someone like him would have to pay P600,000 to pollsters for his name to be included in the list of those who would top the surveys.”
On the other hand, the study conducted by the Ateneo de Manila University showed that “surveys were generally irrelevant to the poor Filipinos when backing certain candidates.”
It would seem that the Filipino masses may have already formed their idea of a leader they will vote for in this election even without the help of pollsters.
But our fascination for political surveys should not blind us from the harsh realities in this election.
I agree with the observations of one of our political analysts who said “if these elections fail and their results are vitiated by large-scale cheating, we will reap the whirlwind.”
Armando Doronila, columnist of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, said the penalties can be horrendous. The next government that comes to power heavily tainted by a stolen election cannot govern because, according to him, it will be rocked with turbulence worse than the May 1, 2001 rebellion and the relentless gridlock in the Senate.
It would not even be stretching one’s imagination too far to say that the “failure can unleash anti-democratic tendencies lurking in the bowels of the political system, not excluding coup d’ etats,” to quote the columnist.
I hope this grim scenario will serve as a sobering thought not only to the candidates who are ahead in the surveys but also most especially to President Arroyo, who is said to have assured her supporters of a wide majority over her closest political rival in the presidential polls.
The Commission on Elections has been contradicting itself with respect to the early release of the new voters’ lists, including coming up with the final number of qualified registered voters.
Specifically, top Comelec officials contradicted each other the other day on the simple question of how many Filipinos are registered to vote in the May 10 polls.
It is critical for the administration to ensure that the elections are clean, and their results credible, to quote Doronila.
(April 30, 2004 issue)
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