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Tuesday, September 07, 2004
RP to grow 5.6%: Morgan Stanley
MANILA—Morgan Stanley has raised its 2004 growth estimate for the Philippines by 1.1 percentage points to 5.6 percent, saying the economy “has performed better than our expectations” in the first half, the US investment bank said in a country report.
After a 6.5 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter the economy grew a further 6.2 percent, bringing first-half expansion to 6.3 percent which is considerably better than the 4.7 percent growth rate for the same period in 2003.
Key driver
Morgan Stanley’s economist for Southeast Asia, Daniel Lian, said in the report that the key driver of growth remains private consumption.
“It contributed to three-quarters of growth in the first half as household spending was buoyed by a pickup in export earnings and overseas workers remittances as well as election spending.”
He said both investment and exports were also helping growth.
“Despite our belief that the economic deceleration is already well underway in the third quarter, we are raising our full-year 2004 GDP growth forecast from 4.5 percent to 5.6 percent anticipating a second-half growth rate of only 4.9 percent,” Lian said.
The government target is GDP growth of between 4.9 and 5.8 percent. (AFP)
(September 7, 2004 issue)
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