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Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Editorial: US polls: watching a tight contest
In the 1948 United States presidential elections, the American nation and the rest of the world at first thought Tom Dewey won and Harry Truman lost.
No surveys, pre-election or exit, at the time, or not as sophisticated as they are now. Dewey just looked like the winner and the candidate himself felt it more than anyone else.
On election night, a story says, Dewey asked his wife, “How will it be to sleep with the president of the United States?” She replied, “A high honor, and quite frankly, darling, I'm looking forward to it.”
The following day at breakfast, after the misreporting was corrected and Truman’s win confirmed, Mrs. Dewey said, “Tell me, Tom, am I going to Washington or is Harry coming here?”
In this year's election, even on voting hours, sophisticated US surveys see a tight race, too close for most pollsters to call.
While President George Bush and Sen. John Kerry publicly look and sound sure of winning, that confidence isn't likely to survive the privacy of bedrooms. Neither candidate will tell his spouse, with Dewey-like verve, about sleeping with the US president first night at White House.
A tight race, of course, brings more tension and drama to an election anywhere. Even in the US where high technology clearly hasn't totally removed occasions for error or fraud, as the glitches of the 2000 US polls illustrated.
Before that sends us rushing over one another to rejoice over non-territoriality of election woes, consider that US election problems are still much smaller compared to ours.
We just had an election in which hard and bitter lessons on need to improve procedures and ways were forcefully driven home. As expected, we are taking our time about poll reforms.
Largely because larger, more immediate concerns of survival stalk the nation. Partly because we prefer last minute, shoddy responses to problems.
The US elections must reenforce Filipino will to pursue our own electoral changes, not just about equipment and rules, more on values and practices.
There are some facets of the American race we can surely do with, such as public debates that despite flaws give voters a close, riveting look at candidates and issues.
And some we can do without: such as pouring millions of dollars on deceptive TV ads--or trusting a sports game to foretell election results.
(November 3, 2004 issue)
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