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Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Speak out: Recipe for disaster
By Dr. Giovanni Tapang
Samahan ng Nagtataguyod ng Agham at Teknolohiya para sa Sambayanan
Narrow exits, lack of coordination, absence of exit plans, movement in multiple directions combined with a strong desire to reach an objective due to poverty is a recipe for panic-induced stampede.
The results of a study done with project leader Dr. Caesar Saloma, Gay Perez, Dr. May Lim and Dr. Cynthia Palmes-Saloma, published in scientific journals Physica A and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA in 2002 and 2003, point this out.
The study, done at the University of the Philippines, demonstrated in simulation and actual experiments with mice that several factors can trigger panic-induced clogging at exits or passageways.
One factor is the width and design of the passageway. A narrow exit leads to collective slow-down among pedestrians crossing in each other’s path.
This slowdown (or jamming) reduces the number of people who can exit.
This disruptive interference of paths can be minimized if you have guided railings near the entrances or entryways positioned far enough from each other.
Such design was lacking in the Wowowee anniversary at the Philsports Arena (formerly Ultra). In their simulation and experiment, they identified another factor — exiting agents would tend to follow their nearest neighbor if they are not provided with a clear exit plan.
In the Wowowee tragedy, the people gathering there were apparently not given a clear plan on how to enter or exit the arena, thus contributing to rapid clogging at the gate.
The number of people is important, although a panic-induced stampede can occur even in rooms with 30 people in it given the right conditions.
The biggest factor is the amount of panic or drive to reach the exit. The study has shown that increasing the “panic parameter” decreases the number of those who can pass through the passageway: the higher the drive to reach the exit, the lower the throughput you will have.
It is obvious that those who came to Wowowee was hoping to get big cash prizes at stake in the show.
At this time of high unemployment, sinking wages and rising costs of commodities, rates and services due to the reformed value-added tax and oil price hikes, the prizes were a huge come-on.
This push of poverty was the final element in the recipe leading to the tragedy.
It could have been avoided if there was good planning and coordination and if there were none of the desperation of the people due to the hard times nowadays.
For Bisaya stories from Cebu. Click here. (February 7, 2006 issue)
Write letter to the editor.Click here.
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