Monday, December 18, 2006 Analysts warn: End speculation
GOVERNMENT’S decision to call off this year’s summit of Southeast Asian leaders was prompted by a “perfect storm” of vague terror threats and efforts to save face, security analysts say.
Experts dismiss the official reason given by Manila—that an approaching typhoon forced the last-minute postponement of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and East Asia summits in Cebu.
Britain, Australia, the United States, New Zealand and Japan had warned against travel to Cebu amid fears of a terror attack.
“I do not think there was any specific information of terrorist plotting prior to the summit — only the usual vagaries,” regional security analyst Scott Harrison told AFP.
Harrison, however, did not rule out the possibility that telecommunications intercepts by security agencies may have triggered the domino effect of travel warnings issued by western governments and Japan about threats to the summit.
“The Philippine Government, as usual, issued conflicting terrorism stories that only added to the potential uncertainty and everyone — including the Philippines and the foreign summit participants — found it convenient to hide behind the typhoon prospect to back away from the summit,” he said.
“It was the perfect storm of vague terrorism uncertainties and face-saving that drove the cancellation,” added Harrison, formerly the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) station chief in Manila and now the managing director of Pacific Strategies and Assessments.
John Harrison, head of terrorism research at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore, told AFP: “We live in a world where any major international gathering is going to be a potential terrorist target. I have not heard anything specific relating to the ASEAN summit. But rumors were flying around. It is quite possible the Abu Sayyaf may have been planning something to embarrass the government. As a group it has been very quiet and an attack on a soft target such as a resort would be something to let the authorities know it hasn’t gone away.”
Another analyst, who asked not to be named, said: “Intelligence gathered during raids on ASG camps in Jolo recently had indicated they may have been planning a Bali-style attack on a resort in Cebu.”
“Not a direct attack on the summit itself, but in an area that would create an impact.”
Media reports based on unnamed security officials have said Abu Sayyaf rebels, along with Indonesian members of the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) network, traveled through Zamboanga City from their strongholds on the southern islands of Jolo and Basilan to carry out attacks during the summit.
The reports claimed Philippine intelligence agents carried out 10 covert operations in Zamboanga last month but failed to find the militants.
Both the Abu Sayyaf and JI are on the US government’s list of foreign terrorist organizations wanted for a spate of deadly bombings in the region.
The reports said that knowledge of the plots was gleaned in part from intercepted rebel communications and four CDs seized from a captured Abu Sayyaf encampment on Jolo in August.
Security officials concluded the militants might be planning a major attack in an unspecified city, possibly Cebu, this month.
However, Sidney Jones, an analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), said she doubted some of the reports.
“Perhaps there was some communications traffic that had been intercepted that caused alarm. But I really don’t have any specific information,” she said.
And as one diplomat told AFP: “Logic dictates that if you knew this information back in August you would have neutralized the threat or cancelled the summit back then.”
“When one country puts out a warning everyone falls into line ... it’s a domino effect. We had information that something may have been in the pipeline. But it was nothing solid.”
“Everyone is speculating and it is helping no one. The question remains: was there a threat to the summit? If so who was behind it and was it credible?” (AFP)
