Monday, May 28, 2007 Mongaya: The Trillanes-Honasan vote By Anol Mongaya Panahom
THE early 8-2-2 trend that favors the opposition in the national Senate count reflects the sentiment of Filipinos living in Luzon, particularly those around Metro Manila.
In fact, the anti-administration sentiment is not limited to sympathies with the pro-impeachment oppositionists in both Senate and the Lower House.
A huge chunk of the population in the north showed affection for rebel leaders Lt. Antonio Trillanes and former senator Gringo Honasan.
Does this mean the two are more personally popular than Cesar Montano and Richard Gomez? Or does this mean there exists a critical mass of civilian support for the causes espoused by both Trillanes and Honasan?
Note that all throughout the campaign, Trillanes could not campaign properly because he was in jail. He was however carried by the Genuine Opposition (GO) slate.
Honasan, on the other hand, was released mid-way during the campaign period but campaigned as an independent. Gringo relied on his nationwide network of Guardian brothers and the politics of unity and reconciliation.
To be able to barge into the Magic 12 early in the count, Trillanes, who took pride in the issues he espoused, must have garnered a huge part of the Luzon vote. All the national surveys then did not place him anywhere the winning Magic 12 so he must have been weak in the Visayas and Mindanao.
While I expect him to be overtaken by Team Unity candidates like Migz Zubiri, Mike Defensor and Butch Pichay, the popularity of Trillanes and his causes in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces should be a cause of worry for the Arroyo administration. This means, military rebels have a potential critical mass of civilian support in these areas that cradle Malacañang.
However, let us expect Gringo back to Senate. To be credible, the coming Senate slate should reflect the broad sentiment that is backing a more moderate yet still former military rebel Gringo Honasan.
I am particularly directing this message to pro-administration dagdag-bawas artists in Mindanao who should be doing their work now to earn their keep.
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Indeed, I expect more TU candidates to join the Magic 12 as the votes from the Visayas and Mindanao arrive in Manila for the Comelec and Namfrel but the GO bets who will fall will be Trillanes and Alan Peter Cayetano.
In their magic 12 places, the contenders are Defensor, Pichay and Koko Pimentel.
These two GO stalwarts—Trillanes and Cayetano—are particularly weak in the south. In fact, I expect Pimentel, whom fellow Mindanao leader Zubiri dislodged, to fight neck-to-neck with another Mindanaoan senatoriable Pichay in the south.
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So Mayor Boy Radaza won the election in Lapu-Lapu City. What did he do right in his turf that the Ouanos bungled in Mandaue City during the recent campaign?
I think Radaza heeded the better advice of his advisers in dealing with the issues hurled against them. Remember the contrasting responses of both Mayor Radaza and Mayor Teddy Ouano to the suspension order as a result of the lamppost issue?
This is water under the bridge but I believe both could have easily neutralized the lamppost issue before the election campaign began had they countered Saavedra’s case that was designed to make them the scapegoats with another case that included all the others Saavedra did not sue. But this is already water that we could also use as chaser in the next tagay na lang.
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