Friday, November 23, 2007 Wenceslao: Pilot’s name, City Hall’s storm tracker By Bong O. Wenceslao Candid Thoughts
JESSE Bernad of Tawason, Mandaue City e-mailed to inform me that the pilot of PAL flight PR 849 from Manila at the height of storm Lando last Nov. 19 was his brother, Capt. Manuel Antonio “Ike” Bernad (assisted by first officer Norman Jaravata, according to PAL’s Jun Canton). Jesse wrote that Ike told him that “it was his worst experience being a pilot. He couldn’t stop his knees from shaking while making sure he landed safely at the Mactan airport.” To Ike Bernad, a toast for a valiant act!
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Here we go again, hearing the Cebu City Government resurrect a plan that got shot down years ago. Just because Pag-asa failed in estimating the strength and time of arrival of one storm, City Hall now wants to become a weather forecaster? Sorry, but the plan reeks of arrogance: Di kamao ang Pag-asa, di kami na lang. Mas maayo pa mi.
To be fair with Councilor Jack Jakosalem, he has been careful in presenting the plan. The data gathered won’t be made public so as not to spark confusion with forecast made by Pag-asa. It won’t cost the City much because information will be accessed from the Internet. Their forecasting would complement and not interfere with Pag-asa’s work.
My observations:
--Can a Jack Jakosalem be better in tracking storms than an Oscar Tabada?
Jack talked about hiring a consultant for science and technology or somebody from Pag-asa. That’s an admission weather forecasting is science, not fortune telling—or that it is better left to experts than to quacks. So how can City Hall’s forecasters be better than Pag-asa?
Jack sounded excited about accessing storm tracking websites like the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the US Naval Base in Pearl Harbor. Maybe it’s the stateside notion that makes some people believe the US Navy is better than Pag-asa in tracking storms. Internet data, however, still needs to be interpreted and localized to be useful.
Which reminds me of the controversy sparked by the late Ernie Baron, the former weather man of ABS-CBN’s “TV Patrol.” He was so enamored with US Navy info he acted like he was more of an expert in tracking storms than Pag-asa. He was eventually put in his place. Which just proves the old admonition: a little knowledge is dangerous.
--I don’t think setting up an effective weather tracking unit won’t cost the City anything. Hiring of experts costs money. Equipment for the purpose is not cheap. Of course, the Internet is cheap. But how reliable is a storm tracker that relies solely on websites for information? If a storm tracker is not reliable, why bother setting it up?
If the goal is for City Hall to set up a clone of Pag-asa (or okay a superior clone), then why not spend the money instead on helping improve Pag-asa’s services? Or there is a cheaper option. Jack can ask Pag-asa to set up a hotline to City Hall. Then the City can talk with Pag-asa about the weather or debate about the path of storms till eternity.
--I have worries about using the forecast of City Hall’s “storm tracker” as basis in calling off classes. What if the storm tracker errs, say when its estimate on the path and strength of the weather disturbance is wrong? What if, it predicts strong winds and heavy rainfall but the sun shines? Can the storm tracker be held liable for the distress?
I agree, though, that the motivation in the idea of creating a weather forecasting unit separate from Pag-asa is noble, which is to upgrade City Hall’s preparedness against storms. But I am opposed to anything that would spark anarchy and confusion. Since Pag-asa is there, the better option is to help improve its efficiency, not compete with it.
