Friday, February 22, 2008 Malilong: Will Arroyo again prove doomsayers wrong? By Frank Malilong The Other Side
WILL she again be able to wiggle free, Houdini-like, of the noose that’s tightening, day by day, around her neck or will her administration finally succumb to asphyxiation?
Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has beaten back many serious attempts to unseat her in the past. The betting now among those with little else to do and even lesser care as to who runs the country is whether or not she can survive the latest one.
I call the odds even.
She is not a very popular president and that is an understatement. Independent surveys show wider discontent among the people now than in the past. Not too many, except probably in Pampanga and in Cebu, will lament her government’s passing, if and when.
The series of scandals capped by the aborted national broadband network con game has the administration reeling in its wake. The crude attempt to prevent Rodolfo Noel Lozada Jr. from testifying in the Senate hearing has incensed the nation and galvanized public opinion against Arroyo, her husband and their allies.
Unlike in past attempts to unseat Arroyo, the Church, or at least a significant, if not noisy, part of it is now publicly a member of the cabal of plotters. Priests and nuns are unabashedly at the forefront of the anti-Arroyo campaign. Angel Lagdameo, president of the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines the other day called for people power.
Most senators will only be happy to see her go. Erap Estrada is playing coy but there is no mistaking where his heart lies. Big business has distanced itself from her. And the leftists are, as usual, out in the streets, mouthing slogans and demanding that she resigns.
Against such an array of issues and a powerful cast of characters, a lesser mortal would have already caved in. But Arroyo is of sterner stuff. In fact, and I mean no disrespect when I say this, she is the consummate escape artist. Many factors favor her.
First, the military and the police have so far remained loyal to her and their support appears unwavering. For as long as she enjoys their allegiance, her seat is more or less secure. Ferdinand Marcos and Erap Estrada fell victims to people power only after the Armed Forces and the police withdrew their support from them.
It may argued that in both Edsa I and II, the police and the military moved in only after it became obvious that the people rallying in the streets have so grown in number and passion as to become an irresistible force.
The absence of a critical mass base or more accurately, the failure so far of the anti-Arroyo forces to muster that number is another factor that weighs in her favor. I do not think that we have lost the capacity to be outraged; in fact, we are outraged. It is just that we have gotten tired of mounting a revolution, even a peaceful one.
It does not help that the characters who are asking us to march in the streets again cannot inspire. There is no one among the anti-Arroyo bishops who can speak with the moral authority of a Cardinal Sin.
Finally, a post-Arroyo scenario isn’t at all inviting. They’re talking of a snap election but how can that be possible?
Under the Constitution, Noli de Castro becomes president if Arroyo steps down. The problem, however, is that, for many people, between a Gloria and a Noli government, the choice is between the devil and the deep blue sea.
I know some people who are already preparing for life after GMA as if her ouster is already a done deal. She may yet again prove them wrong. Whether her luck has or has not run out, that is the question.
