Sunday, February 24, 2008 Mercado: Blink and the hinge factor By Juan L. Mercado Sidebar
(WE first met the author of the commentary below in Bangkok: Felicito Payumo, three term representative for Bataan. Later, he chaired Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority. Mr. Payumo agreed to our condensing his article.-- JLM)
We watched Jun Lozada, on TV, during the Senate hearing. No one knew him personally. But when he cried, I saw tears in the crowd. Why this sympathy?
Beyond his articulateness, people identified themselves with him. His admitted imperfections made him more credible.
In Lozada, people saw a neighbor or friend violated by the State. Not just his physical body but his person. Not just by thugs but by State goons. They, likewise, felt violated. They (didn't) buy the line that Lozada was being protected when held captive in a long "joyride."
Why did people believe Lozada? Malcolm Gladwell ("The Tipping Point") explained it in his other book: "Blink": People can tell if one is telling the truth. Just like students can tell if a professor will be lousy after his first lecture.
Gladwell calls this "the power of thin slicing." People can make "sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience." There are exceptions. But often, you can trust rapid cognition.
(Thus) people knew whose voice was on the "Hello Garci" tape. No "two tape" obfuscations from Secretary Ignacio Bunye or voice print analysis from Mike Defensor changed their mind. The "I am sorry" statement proved people right.
What will the end game be?
Is this the tipping point? Hard to tell. But history teaches "hinge factors" (like) chance and stupidity can change history's course. Historian Erich Durschmied shows conflicts were decided by the caprice of weather or incompetence.
From Agincourt to Mactan and Vietnam, the hinge factor was weather or human stupidity or the deadly combination of both. Armored French chevaliers were mowed down by Henry V's foot soldiers because the French commander ignored "the soggy ground (that) gripped horses' hooves like thick molasses."
Magellan ignored the distance from his boats to Mactan's shore because of low tide. Weighed down by armor, they were mowed down by Lapu-lapu's spears.
Cameras caught South Vietnam's police chief firing point blank into the head of a civilian. From that moment on, American generals had to fight world opinion instead of Vietcongs.
That stupid act was matched by shooting a man on the tarmac of our airport. That started the chain that unhinged the Marcos dictatorship.
Will seizing Lozada, out of the same airport, unleashing government's wrath against this probinsyanong Intsik, and paranoid reaction to businessmen's statements, snowball?
It depends on how stupid government's response will be. That text message threat to Ramon del Rosario, Jr. of Makati Business Club was a warning shot to all businessmen. Will they be cowed?
(A hinge) act by a Filipino general prevented bloodshed by letting history run its course in favor of the people.
Malacañang ordered Marine Gen. Artemio Tadiar to shell Camp Aguinaldo when the crowds were still thin. I was at Edsa then. When Tadiar took over Subic Command, I asked: Why did you not obey?
He bought time, he replied. He got permission to "clarify the order" in Malacañang. After getting confirmation, he drove by round-about route back. By then, the crowd had massed. So, he told Malacañang: shelling would massacre thousands. He refused to spill blood of innocent people.
That was the end game for Malacañang. The hinge factor was the good sense and patriotism of a general. The rest is history. Will there be a repeat?
