Thursday, March 06, 2008 Wenceslao: Military adventurism By Bong O. Wenceslao Candid Thoughts
SEN. Gregorio Honasan, being a former coup leader, surely knows something we ordinary mortals do not. When he warned civilians not to lure soldiers into another military adventure, we should therefore listen. In Honasan's view, forcing another revolt will be bloody. Judging from past experience, I think there is logic in the observation.
Here, two points stand out. One, government's armed component is no longer a unified force, with the Armed Forces of the Philippines on one side and the Philippine National Police (PNP) on the other. Two, restiveness mostly come from below. Many of the top officials in the military and police are not about to break the chain of command.
Edsa 2, or the people power uprising against Joseph Estrada in 2001, was unique in that the generals led by then Armed Forces chief Angelo Reyes and police officials, notwithstanding their then director Panfilo Lacson's loyalty to Erap, quickly shifted sides, preventing the military establishment and the PNP from cracking or fighting each other.
The main reason for this was that the push to oust Estrada was overwhelming, which is not yet the case as of the moment. While President Arroyo's popularity rating is low, there is still ambivalence on the matter of ousting her through another uprising and on how effective people power is in effecting lasting and worthwhile change.
There's no assurance, then, that forces ranged against Arroyo can win over the entire military and police establishments to their side. Most probably they can get the sympathy of a segment of the Armed Forces and the PNP, like junior officers or a few generals. That could result in a bloody duel between Arroyo loyalists and rebels.
This is the danger posed when the civilian component of what should have been a popular uprising fails to show up even as the Armed Forces and the PNP are wooed to act. The military/police component of the uprising may do it on its own, resulting in an armed assault on power. There could be a violent confrontation or even civil war.
In the most recent attempt at a power grab at the Manila Peninsula, government forces showed a determination to conduct an all-out, probably bloody, assault on Sen. Antonio Trillanes and his group. The assaulting force was from the PNP. At the height of the interfaith rally in Makati last week, the President holed herself up in Camp Crame.
Indeed, as Honasan said, the next uprising could be bloody.
