Friday, April 25, 2008 Wenceslao: Cuenco-Osmeña dynamics By Bong O. Wenceslao Candid Thoughts
REP. Antonio Cuenco’s falling out with Mayor Tomas Osmeña may or may not complicate the political situation in Cebu City’s south district. Cuenco, compared with Osmeña, can be considered more of the lame duck. This is Cuenco’s third and last term and he seems to have nobody strong enough to temporarily turn over the district to.
Besides, the past three elections saw Cuenco lean heavily on the support of the mayor and his Bando Osmeña-Pundok Kauswagan (BO-PK) to stave off the strong challenge of Totol Batuhan (twice) and Atan Guardo (once). Cuenco and Osmeña have long been allies it has become difficult to differentiate their machineries in the district.
But I doubt that if ever Cuenco decides to field his own candidate in the district or at least ensure the defeat of Osmeña’s bet there, he can successfully extricate his political machinery away from the alliance. Some of his leaders may stick with the BO-PK. He is thus in a loss-loss position and may end up becoming a fence-sitter in the district in 2010.
On the other hand, while Osmeña can no longer run for mayor in 2010, he seems determined to continue exerting his influence on City Hall by fielding candidates and maintaining his hold on BO-PK. He is no lame duck because he can exercise his authority in the sidelines considering the nature of BO-PK and its members. All bow low to him.
With Cuenco out of the BO-PK picture, Osmeña can play better the political chess game. For starters, he can now give Vice Mayor Michael Rama the option of running for congressman in the south district instead of gunning for mayor, if the rumor is true that he is grooming Margot for mayor. Or he can field one “spare tire,” Joy Young, there.
But Cuenco can also complicate matters if he wants to. He can humor Osmeña by aligning with his former political enemies Batuhan and Guardo. A merging of whatever Cuenco can salvage of his political machinery in the south district with those of Batuhan and Guardo will give Osmeña’s bet in the south, to use a cliché, a run for his money.
Osmeña may put up an air of nonchalance, like he always does, with this recent development, but the loss of Cuenco and with him forced to do the electoral fighting in the sidelines will make the 2010 polls in the city interesting. The political opposition will have a bigger chance than ever of either pulling an upset or at least grabbing some posts.
The status of Rep. Raul del Mar in the city’s north district was not even factored there. Like Cuenco and Osmeña, del Mar is on his last term and may have to momentarily field a relative in his place. That should take much of del Mar’s time away from the city-wide polls, especially if the opposition can find a strong bet against his anointed one.
My take has always been that Osmeña’s ability to win elections is overrated. He was able to bamboozle his way in past political exercises mainly because only few big- name political personalities dared to tangle with him and those who tried fell short, notably in funding and preparation. A united and wiser opposition can give BO-PK fits.
It would be too early to say that the BO-PK is crumbling. But Osmeña’s falling out with Cuenco may be a bad omen for the administration party in the 2010 elections.
