Saturday, July 05, 2008 Editorials: Be wary of dire predictions
PRICES of petroleum products soared to a record above $144 a barrel in Asia last Thursday—or at least that was what reports said yesterday about the oil crisis.
Associated Press said it well: “The latest spike means a barrel of crude has gone up by more than half since the end of last year, when oil was going for $96 a barrel.”
From those reports, or since oil prices soared, gloomy forecasts have been thrown around, like the possibility of prices of crude breaching the $200 a barrel level.
For us Filipinos, who have been reeling already from the weekly P1.50 per liter increases in oil prices, such forecasts add to the myriads of worries being felt now.
Forecasts
But here’s an advice: be very wary of dire predictions from your usual prophets of doom, even if they have doctorate degrees in economics or labeled as experts.
Forecasts are forecasts, making those so-called economists and think tanks no different from the much maligned Pag-asa whose forecasts are but hit or miss.
Reality often contradicts theories and for every expert projection that seemingly hits its mark is tens of others that misses badly or only contributes to public anxieties.
Relevance
Tracking oil prices and calculating its direction must be objective, a difficult task considering the many factors at play in the pricing and the many variables to consider.
But it’s not that forecasts don’t have any relevance.
In a way, the function of such mind games is either to pinpoint where solutions can be had or at least prepare the people for any eventuality (instead of spreading panic).
Hope, resilence
Which brings us to the other point: in situations like this, when international oil prices are volatile, there are things that a person can control and things he/she can not.
As oil prices soar, for example, and with it the prices of other commodities, one can straighten out the family budget, like trimming down expenses on non-essentials.
As for things we do not have control of, like the pricing of petroleum products in the world market, we can rave and rant all we want but should not lose hope or faith in people’s resilience.
