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Friday, May 09, 2003
Lee: Effect of Sars on China
By Kelvin Lee
BEIJING -- China was once considered an up and coming superpower. That has all changed with the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars). By attempting to hide all the suspected Sars cases in China, the country has lost a great deal of political capital that it had built up over the years.
Now, China is vulnerable in the same way that America was during the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal. With a loss of prestige comes a loss in strength. And this is what is happening with China.
China has been an international player since its entrance into the UN years ago. It has a veto in the UN Security council and is the largest market the world has ever seen. It has played an influential role in international politics for decades, especially in the Southeast Asian region where many smaller countries such as our own have treated China with a combination of awe and fear. China has plans on becoming a superpower to rival America, but it wishes to do so using old-fashioned strong-arm tactics.
And it has all backfired on it. It is possible now that countries with a relationship with China will not treat it the way it wishes to be treated. It is possible now that, with a black mark against it, China's dreams of becoming an influential superpower will be curbed.
It is possible now that China cannot influence multilateral organizations such as the UN or the World Bank as effectively as it did before the Sars outbreak. It is possible that China's standing in the world pecking order has been downgraded due to Sars. It is possible that China's assertion of regional leadership will now be challenged by countries which have not been hit by Sars, countries like Japan or even South Korea.
And that isn't the end of it.
In China itself, a large number of schools are still shut down. That means millions of young minds are missing out on an education that will be badly needed in the future.
Shops, restaurants, business and other public places have shut down or been forcibly closed by the government. Why? Because there are no customers. No one wants to go out. Plus, the government does not want any public gatherings where infection may be possible. The big cities of China have become ghost towns.
Travel agencies, airline companies and tour groups have mainly ceased operations as well. No one wishes to travel, not even to once popular places like Beijing or HongKong. Airlines are canceling flights willy-nilly.
And then there is the economic cost of Sars, estimated at US $11 billion this year.
All because China did not disclose cases of Sars in November, when it first appeared. Worse, it even covered them up continuously until pressure from the World Health Organization forced them to open up.
So what is the lesson here?
If something like this could happen to a major powerhouse like China, what more for a country like ours? Can you imagine what will happen to the Philippines if an outbreak of Sars were to occur? So let the example of China serve as a warning.
The Philippines needs to be careful. Now. (Visit the writer's website at www.babbleon5.blogspot.com or email him at babbleon@atenista.net)
(May 9, 2003 issue)
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