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Tuesday, December 30, 2003
Ajero: Political survey says
By Tony Ajero
Political Po
The easiest way to appreciate the percentages shown above--of the margin of FPJ over GMA, Duterte over BCG and Nograles over his "nearest" rival--is to recall that the 29,000 plus margin of Mayor Duterte over de Guzman in 2001 represented actually only about 9% or thereabouts of the total number of votes cast in Davao City that election year.
SOMETIME in the first week of December or thereabouts, we received phone calls and text messages from a number of friends, mostly politicians and their supporters, inquiring about a new political survey supposedly conducted in Davao City to gauge voters' preference for president, vice president, mayor, vice mayor and members of the Sangguniang Panlungsod.
They were referring, they said, to a survey, supposedly the third one conducted after the death of broadcaster-politician Juan Pala Jr. which has stirred the community. The murder was made political capital by some people against incumbent Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte, who was the subject of Pala's daily diatribes for years until bullets from assassins felled him near his residence in the Davao Empress Subdivision on the night of September 7, 2003.
Obviously, certain Dabawenyos thought and still think that Pala's death could have adversely affected the approval rating of Mayor Duterte.
After several days of asking around, we were fortunate to bump into somebody who claimed he had direct albeit partial involvement in planning the survey. We knew this guy, a local businessman, from way back as staunch supporter of a candidate for congressman in 1987.
We were able to convince him to share with me some of the results and he agreed only on condition that he will not be identified as the source. To test our sincerity in keeping his identity under wraps, he initially released only the results of the survey in the City's First District.
As we have no doubt about the authenticity of the survey (he has shown us several surveys before), we are going public with it.
For President: Fernando Poe Jr.-27.33%; Gloria Macapagal Arroyo-19.67%; Noli de Castro-15.00%; Raul Roco- 9.33%; Panfilo Lacson-8.33%; Joseph Estrada- 2.67%; Eduardo Cojuangco,1.00%; Imelda Marcos- 0.66% and Hilario Davide Jr.- 0.66%.
For Vice President: De Castro-26.00%; Loren Legarda-21.00%; Loi Ejercito-
8.67%; FPJ-7.33%; Dong Puno-5.00%; Mayor Duterte-3.67%; Juan Flavier-
3.00%; Jose de Venecia- 2.33% and Ed Angara-2.00%.
For City Mayor: Duterte-36.67%; Benjamin de Guzman-24.00%; Prospero C. Nograles-13.00%;Luis C. Bonguyan-4.33%; Jess Dureza -3.67%; Mabel Sunga-2.33%.
For City Councilor: Angela Librado-28.00%; Acosta-24.33%; Militar-21.00%; Peter Lavi¤a-16.00%; Leo Avila-12.00%; Emmanuel Galicia-10.00%; Nilo Abellera- 6.00%; Alexis Almendras-1.00%.
For Congressman (or Representatives): Nograles-50.00%; Librado-9.67%; Dureza-6.00%;De Guzman-6.00%; and Wendel Avisado-3.67%; M. Sunga-1.67%; Bonifacio Militar-1.00% and Joji Bian-0.33%.
It's easy to believe the survey without going into the details on how it was conducted because its results more or less confirm our own hunch. For instance, no one can argue that FPJ is the most popular among the presidential hopefuls. Or that Noli "Kabayan" de Castro is slightly ahead of fellow broadcaster Loren Legarda in the vice presidential derby even before declaring himself in the running. Or that Duterte is still the man to beat for mayor.
Most impressive but not surprising is the rating of Rep. Nograles. This is perhaps because he has distinguished himself in three very important aspects in Philippine politics --legislative work, project implementation and local and national media exposure. Even in controversies he's not lacking. He is what we can call, without fear of contradiction, a complete Filipino politician. "Completo recado" is the apt street lingo.
The easiest way to appreciate the percentages shown above--of the margin of FPJ over GMA, Duterte over BCG and Nograles over his "nearest" rival--is to recall that the 29,000 plus margin of Mayor Duterte over de Guzman in 2001 represented actually only about 9% of the total number of votes cast in Davao City that election year. Vice Mayor Louie Bonguyan, who is now acting city mayor, estimated that Davao City now has a total of 600,000 voters, from more than half a million in 2001.
(December 30, 2003 issue)
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