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North Korea, the new paranoia




Wednesday, November 22, 2006
North Korea, the new paranoia
By Cris D. Kabasares

SAN FRANCISCO, California -- More than the fence, China needs to find new and creative ways to deal with its closest ally -- North Korea.

On October 18, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice reiterated a U.S. pledge to "give the full range of its power to defend allies against North Korea."

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Short of "nuking" the country, it was, at the time, the only logical response to the bullying of Kim Jong Il.

The threat worked.

On October 31, North Korea agreed to return to the six-nation (China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, United States, and Japan) nuclear disarmament talks. It was a breakthrough. The negotiations ceased since August of last year.

North Korea's October 9 nuclear bomb test resurrected paranoia on a global scale. But nowhere is its impact more telling than in Asia, a region that's enjoying an economic success unprecedented in recent times.

Kim Jong Il's swagger and tyrannical bent artlessly fuel this fear. "It threatens to disrupt the peace, and it's particularly worrisome to China,
South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan," according to Washington Post.

And it comes at a critical time for the U.S. when it's deeply enmeshed in Iraq and is rethinking its quest for victory there. With Iran stepping up its a dual-use nuclear program, U.S. hands are somewhat tied to deal effectively with another deepening crisis. On November 3, Iran successfully test-fired its model Revolutionary Guard sea missiles in what was described as a show of force to claim its capabilities in the Gulf.

But Kim Jong Il has failed to consider the phenomenal clout of the only superpower in the world, according to the International Institute of Strategic
Studies. The IISS assessment of the global strength of the U.S. is significant. "The U.S has enormous economic and military powers to rally support for its causes, it has awesome capability to influence events and project power on a global scale." The IISS says the U.S. maintains "a strong economic and industrial bases and highly advanced technological infrastructure" to support its military strength, making it the most powerful in the world.

The U.S. alone has the most technologically advanced system to strike -- by land, air, and sea -- at multiple targets anywhere in the globe.

It's massive striking power is matched by an anti-missiles shield that intercepts and -- destroys -- intercontinental nuclear warheads in mid flight. In today's troubled world, all that seems inadequate. The U.S. is developing a system capable of locating and obliterating -- enemy missiles at their launching sites. The institute counts China and India as emerging "superpowers in the 21st century."

The Wall Street Journal suggests that "if the U.S. is to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, it must put together its own coalition of allies to police and expose the nuclear cheaters like North Korea and Iran. It (the U.S.) has engaged China to be its point guard in dealing with North Korea.

China has made clear its falling out with North Korea when it pledged to carry out the UN sanctions. China, Russia and South Korea share borders with North Korea, one of the most volatile regions in the world today where the Korean War is at a historic standstill along the 155-mile Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) for 53 years now. China shares an 880-mile boundary with North Korea where it predicts defectors and refugees from Kim's regime will pass through eventually creating a major source of problem between the two.

Meanwhile, it is building a barbwire and concrete fence along its border. More than the "fence" however, China needs to find new and creative ways to deal with its closest ally and largest trading partner. Instability in the region disrupts its continuing economic "boom and the peace that comes with it. The whole of Asia would be hostage to Kim Jong Il's whims if he finally develops the needed technology to launch his inter-continental nuclear warheads.

There had been signs that the old ideological "comradeship" would play out well for North Korea in confronting the Oct. 14 UN sanctions. Russia and China voted for the resolution but initially balked at enforcing the series of penalties. Observers predicted that Russia may yet revisit its role as principal guarantor of North Korea's security during the Cold War. North Korea looks up to China as its ideological model, a rapport that has cemented a strong alliance between them. But that scenario has radically changed. On October 16, two days after the approval of the UN sanctions, China and Russia gave their full support of the embargo. That action alienated North Korea from its previous mentors.

Asia is fast becoming a hub for nuclear power. The International Energy Agency (IEA) lists China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and now North Korea as "nuclear power states." The listing comprises more than half of the world's eight nuclear power nations -- the U.S., United Kingdom, Russia, China, France, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

Israel would have been up in the list, but it seemingly enjoys its role as the odd man out. Though listed by the Federation of American Scientists as the eighth of the original nuclear powers, Israel neither denies nor confirms possession of the weapon, nor is it a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). A number of scientific and military organizations designate Israel as undeclared nuclear nation, in fact arguing that it ought to be in the original". "Today it's listed "unofficially" as the ninth nuclear state.

The U.S. suspects that Iran's nuclear program is a pretext for its ambition to produce its own nuclear weapons. In 2004, President George W. Bush vowed the U.S. would do everything within its power to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. A European Union-led (EU) drive to impose curbs on Iran's nuclear program is in the works. Taiwan; possesses the technical capacity to build nuclear weapons but the US-Taiwan Defense Treaty disallows it. It initiated a nuclear weapons project in the 1960s, but U.S. pressure led to its abandonment. Reports from various sources, including intelligence agencies, however, speculate that the island nation may have small but nevertheless effective nuclear weapons program.

South Korea tried building a nuclear weapons program in 1970 but like Taiwan, discontinued it under heavy pressure from the U.S. In 1975 Seoul signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Japan, by reason of its highly advanced technology and strong economy, is a "de facto" nuclear power. A U.S. Defense Department material on the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security states that, "Japan hosts a U.S. carrier battle group, the III Marine Expeditionary Force, the 5th Air Force and elements of the U.S. Army's I Corps." Like South Korea and Taiwan, Japan is under the U.S. nuclear shield.

The International Institute of Strategic Studies lists the five countries with the largest military forces (men under arms) in the world today in the numerical order of their manpower strength. North Korea ranks as number 5 biggest armed forces in the world behind (1) China 2,840,000, (2) U.S. 1,431,000. (3) Russia 1,200,000, (4) India 1,145,000. North Korea, No. 5, has 1,055,000 men and women under arms. Highly trained, it's a formidable force to reckon with. (Author's note. The figures designate only forces in active status and do not include the reserved components. Publicly known information regarding nuclear power states is available through IISS.)

Sebastian Mallady writes: "The American era may not be nearing its end, but has there been a worse moment for American power?"

Cris D. Kabasares was for many years a military correspondent during the 60s and has covered the Vietnam War and other conflicts in Southeast Asia.

For more Philippine news, visit Sun.Star Pangasinan.

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(November 22, 2006 issue)
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