Tuesday, May 15, 2007 Ajero: Forecast By Antonio Ajero The Sentry Post
THIS forecast was already available last Saturday but could not be published for fear of being construed as an illegal effort to influence the voters who were still to troop to the polling centers on Monday.
This is based on our own rounds of many places in the Davao Region. We were also privy to the results of certain surveys conducted two weeks before Election Day.
The surveys were done by FTB Consultancy for individual local and national candidates and political groups that wanted to know their standings at certain stages of the campaign in order for them to be guided in their moves.
We did our share in checking and counter-checking the results, eventually coming out with these predictions of the balloting outcome mostly in the Davao Region.
Let's see how our forecast will compare with the actual results.
A sweep in DO
Davao Oriental will become a Kampi (Kabalikat sa Mamamayang Pilipino) country with the expected victory of Rep. Corazon N. Malanyaon over her cousin, reelectionist Gov. Maria Elena T. Palma Gil. Malanyaon's running mate, Rep. Mayo Almario, surveys say, will make it as vice governor, while his comebacking mother, Thelma, will recapture her old seat as congresswoman of Davao Oriental's second district.
In the first district, Nelson Dayanghirang did better in the surveys against Pia Palma Gil, lawyer daughter of the governor. Mayoralty bets aligned with Malanyaon, led by Michelle Rabat of Mati, are expected to triumph over their Lakas CMD rivals. Rabat's opponent is former governor Rosalind Lopez.
Comval fight
Compostela Valley, where most of the political killings in the Davao Region occurred, will go for Kampi gubernatorial bet Kristine Mae Caballero over fellow provincial board member Arturo "Chiongkee" T. Uy of Lakas CMD.
But Uy's vice gubernatorial Ramil Lao Gentuyaga will be reelected. The surveys also consistently showed that the quest of Rep. Manuel "Way Kurat" Zamora for a third and last term will have smooth sailing despite the vast resources of Joselito "JB" Brillantes, and the popular antics of Diwalwal barangay chairman Franco Tito.
Monkayo Mayor Manuel Brillantes Jr., brother of "JB," is sure to be reelected, if the surveys were to be believed.
Too close to call
While his daughter, Kris, is expected to win, the fight of Gov. Jose Caballero for congressman of the second district with neophyte Rommel Amatong, civil engineer son of Rep. Prospero Amatong, is "too close to call."
Big margin in DN
In Davao de Norte, even before the open support of "kingmaker" Don Antonio Floirendo, comebacking Rodolfo del Rosario was already dominating the ratings in the surveys.
FB Consultancy expects Dolfo to win by a wide margin of from 85,000 to 100,000 votes over incumbent Gelacio Gementiza. The vice gubernatorial race is also lopsided in favor of Dolfo's running mate, former vice governor Victorio Suaybaguio.
Reelectionist Rep. Arrel Olano of Davao del Norte's first district is expected to win over comebacking former congressman Pantaleon Alvarez, one-time secretary of the Department of Transportation and Communication, but by a slight margin.
Foregone conclusions
In the second district, the victory of Anton F. Lagdameo, Don Antonio's most favorite grandson, is a foregone conclusion.
Another foregone conclusion is the reelection of Tagum City Mayor Rey T. Uy against an almost unknown.
FB Consultancy has also been asked to conduct pre-election surveys in Socsksargen, particularly in General Santos City and Sarangani. Mayor Pedro Acharon Jr. of Gensan and Gov. Miguel Dominguez will be reelected hands down, but boxing icon Manny Pacquiao is in trouble with reelectionist Darlene Antonino-Custodio who has been winning at least in the last survey done two weeks before E-Day.
Davao del Sur
The consultancy firm was not commissioned to do surveys in Davao del Sur. However, based on our own interviews with dopesters, it's a close fight between two congressmen -Douglas Ra. Cagas of the First District and Claude P. Bautista of the Second - for governor. Bautista is slightly favored. In the fight for congressman in the First District, observers claimed that Marc Douglas IV would overwhelm his closest rivals - Vice Gov. Romualdo Garcia and Nonito "Dondon" Llanos III. In the Second District, Malita Mayor Franklin P. Bautista, a former lawmaker, is given the edge over Jaime Chin of Kampi.
City: Mostly unopposed
Here at home, where Hugpong sa Tawong Lungsod bets are mostly unopposed, FB consultancy said, the following will be proclaimed winners a few hours after the balloting - Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte, Vice Mayor Sara Z. Duterte, first district Rep. Prospero C. Nograles and Second District Rep. Vincent J. Garcia.
But the surveys showed that it is too close to call between Dr. Rene Lopez and Isidro Ungab in the fight for the congressman of the third district. The surveys earlier showed former mayor Benjamin C. de Guzman not so far behind.
As we said at the start of this article, let's see how this forecast will compare with the actual official outcome, expected to be announced by the board of canvassers anytime Tuesday. Abangan!
Many voters in Davao City failed to vote Monday because of an age-old problem -they were unable to locate their names in their old precinct (presumed precincts).
Among them were lawyer Rody Lalin, broadcaster Delfin Sulamin and Apo View coffeemate Cleo Satina. Atty. Lalin said he couldn't find his name in the precinct where his two children are listed, including the one who is already in the United States.
Cleo, who is likewise voting in the Dan Aguinaldo (Matina) High School like Rody, blamed himself for not verifying his name earlier.
Announcer Delfin said that aside from him, 13 other voters were looking for their voting centers Monday. After three hours, they all gave up and went home glum and grumbling. Mercifully, disenfranchisement was not widespread in the city.
