Tuesday, September 04, 2007 Exporters keep 11 percent growth forecast for 2007
DESPITE the minimum growth of exports last June at only 1.6 percent, exporters have stuck to the 11 percent overall-growth for the whole year.
Philippine Exporters Confederation (Philexport) president Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis Jr. noted that in late August, the peso had started weakening against the dollar in response to the housing credit squeeze in the US.
He said the slowdown in June was partly due to the strong peso that hit a seven-year high of P44.90. It has gone back to a more tolerable P46.70 to the dollar average last week.
Ortiz-Luis said the third quarter of the year between July and September is traditionally the peak months of Philippine exports as foreign buyers stockpile inventories for sale during the holiday season in December.
"We expect the same pattern will hold, barring any major incident that affects global trade," he said.
The think-tank Idea came out this week with an analysis of the economic situation in the Philippines and said the export slowdown in exports in the past few months was mainly due to a strengthening peso that made Philippine goods more expensive abroad.
Leaders of indigenous exports from the handicrafts, food and furniture industries have complained of huge losses they estimated to average P1.5 billion a month when the peso went below P46 to the dollar.
They were later joined in by families of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) who pointed out that the peso equivalent of an average of US$200 dollars of remittance a month was already lower by P1,000 last June compared to the peso equivalent of the same remittance at P50 to the dollar in December last year.
They have appealed to the BSP for a livable exchange rate. The OFWs want a P50 to the dollar rate while the small exporters wanted a stable exchange rate between P50 and P48.
The fast growing business process outsourcing (BPOs) and call centers, through their association, have been clamoring for a P48 to the dollar rate as livable. (Philexport News and Features/Sunnex)
