Wednesday, March 26, 2008 Group assures enough copra production next year
THE Asian Institute of Petroleum Studies Inc. (Aipsi) maintained that there will be no shortfall in copra production in 2009 as many companies are now into bio-diesel production.
Rafael Diaz, Aipsi managing director, explained that, "the 2.43 million metric tons (MT) of copra production equivalent to 1.458 million MTs of coco oil is not exclusive to bio-diesel production alone."
"The Bio-diesel mandate for B1 (one percent blend of Coco Methyl Ester in diesel fuel) amounts to 63 million liters of CME per year more or less (54,810 MTs by weight). This translates to just 3.8 percent of the total 2008 production," Diaz said.
The Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) earlier projected a shortfall of about 100,000 MTs of copra by 2009 despite a modest uptrend in copra production of 2.43 million MT as of yearend 2008.
Diaz explained that the shortfall of 100,000 MTs in copra production next year would represent a four-percent reduction from the 2.43 million MTs that will be produced this year and bring it down to 2.33 MTs.
At the same time, Diaz said the B2 mandate that will take effect in January 2009 will require 126 million liters of CME (109,620 MTs by weight) representing just 7.5 percent of total 2008 production.
He said the impact of the government's coconut fertilization program, which may not have been fully factored into the projected copra production, can substantially increase the yield of coconut trees that may potentially negate the projected shortfall of 100,000 MTs.
Diaz also explained that the shortfall in copra production of 100,000 MTs by 2009 as stated by the PCA would not be significant enough to affect the required feedstock for a B2 mandate in January 2009.
"After all, 80 percent of our coconut oil production is effectively an excess of our domestic requirement and the quantity is exported based on Rotterdam Price Index that is virtually controlled and dictated by a handful of big-time seed crop traders," he said.
The PCA said the country must produce 2.7 million MTs of copra in 2009 to meet the expected demand for coconut methyl ester but meeting the 2.7-million MT production for 2009 will be a tough call since copra production has been on a decline since 2005 with a production of 2.6 million MTs, 2.5 million MTs in 2006, and 2.3 million MTs in 2007.
The PCA admitted that production declined in 2006 was due to the typhoons hitting the country, but this year's absence of a dry season favors coconut production.
Copra production is projected to hit 2.6 million MTs in 2009, thus a 100,000-MT gap in projected demand and supply.
To increase copra production in the next few years, the coconut agency is allotting P1.98 billion this year and P2.59 billion next year. The propagation of salt as fertilizer is a major program of the agency to increase copra production, which could increase the production by 20 to 25 percent.
The government is also launching an ambitious program to plant an additional 16 million coconut trees nationwide in the next three years. At present, there are more than 324 million coconut trees planted on more than three million hectares of lands. (MSN/Sunnex)
