Thursday, November 27, 2003
Arroyo could lose in elections: survey (2:31 p.m.)
MANILA -- President Arroyo could lose in elections pitting her against popular movie star Fernando Poe and two other contenders, according to an independent survey released Thursday.
The survey by Pulse Asia Inc. showed that although Poe, the "John Wayne" of the Philippines, was unlikely to be the overall winner he would likely drain votes from Arroyo and damage her chances of reelection in May 2004 elections.
Pulse Asia made the finding after testing "three of the most likely scenarios" for the presidential race pitting leading contenders Poe, Arroyo, ex-senator Raul Roco and Senator Panfilo Lacson.
The poll showed Arroyo might lose to Roco, a former education secretary in her cabinet, in all three scenarios, Pulse Asia said.
The survey was conducted from November 4 to 17 with 1,200 respondents nationwide and before the announcement Wednesday by Poe, a high school dropout with no political experience, that he would take on Arroyo.
His challenge raised the prospect the country might again be ruled by someone whose only claim to the nation's top job was his popularity as a movie star.
Arroyo's predecessor Joseph Estrada, also an action movie star, was driven out of power by a popular military-led revolt after he was impeached for corruption in January 2001.
Pulse Asia said that if the election were to be a three-way race between Arroyo, Poe and Roco, it would be a neck-and-neck fight with the movie star likely getting 34 percent of the vote, Roco 35 percent and Arroyo 29 percent.
But if Lacson were included in the race, Roco would still win with 30 percent of the vote, while Arroyo and Poe would get 28 percent each and Lacson 12 percent, the survey showed.
If Poe were out of the race, Roco would emerge as the clear winner with 40 percent and Arroyo a distant second at 33 percent and Lacson on 23 percent, Pulse Asia said.
The survey has an error margin of plus or minus three percent.
Ratings agency Moody's on Wednesday placed on review for possible downgrade the Philippines' long-term foreign and local currency ceilings and ratings because of the heightened political uncertainty, highlighted by Poe's candidacy.
His announcement brought the peso to its an all-time low of 55.85 to the dollar on Thursday, eclipsing the previous record low on January 17, 2001 -- a few days before a military-backed popular revolt toppled his best friend Estrada.
Share prices on Thursday also tumbled 1.86 percent, or 24.94 points, to 1,319.42. (AFP) |
