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Thursday, December 04, 2003
FPJ beats Arroyo in nationwide poll
MANILA --- Movie actor Fernando Poe Jr. would unseat President Arroyo if the elections were held today, according to a Social Weather Station (SWS) survey released last Wednesday, which showed a decline in her public approval ratings.
The November 8 to 24 survey results of SWS showed Poe and ex-broadcaster Noli de Castro leading the candidates featured in the poll, with Arroyo relegated to fourth spot.
Twenty-five percent of 1,200 respondents in the nationwide survey said they would vote for Poe, known as the "John Wayne" of the Philippines, in the May elections.
Twenty-four percent said they would vote for de Castro, now a senator.
Eighteen percent of the respondents said they would pick ex-senator Raul Roco, while just 17 percent named Arroyo and 10 percent chose opposition stalwart Senator Panfilo Lacson. The remaining six percent of those polled were undecided.
The survey result indicates a significant gain for Poe who as of mid-September had only 14 percent, and a decline for de Castro who formerly had 28 percent.
The September proportions of Roco (20 percent), GMA (17 percent) and Lacson (10 percent) are essentially unchanged.
The pollster cannot explain the quantum leap of Poe in the recent survey.
Arroyo, Poe, Roco and Lacson all announced plans to contest the elections, while de Castro, who may settle for a bid for the vice-presidency, is expected to make his decision soon.
The SWS survey also showed that 43 percent of the respondents were "dissatisfied" with Arroyo's performance compared with 40 percent in September.
Some 56 percent said they were against her decision to reverse an earlier pledge to bow out of politics.
Arroyo's drop in ratings was also due to allegations of corruption against her husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo, which she has denied, SWS said.
Reacting to the results of the survey, Arroyo spokesman Ignacio Bunye said it was conducted "during a most controversial period" and that surveys would have "some amount of volatility as the election fever heats up".
It was the second time this year and during Arroyo's presidency that she got negative marks. The first time was during the SWS March 10-25 survey because she supported the US campaign against Iraq.
The recent survey also showed a drop in the ratings of Congress, the Supreme Court (SC), and Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. because of the impeachment controversy.
Bunye said Arroyo's rating took a further nosedive because she "took a principled but unpopular stand during the impeachment controversy" by resolving the issue through a covenant, which was construed by many as a weakness.
Housing czar Michael Defensor, administration coalition spokesman on campaign and political issues, said Arroyo's lower rating was brought about more by the impeachment controversy than her reneging on her earlier decision not to run, as proven by the drop in the marks of government institutions and the country's other top officials.
"It may have been unpopular but it solved the crisis and we hope that now that we are unified and now that there is no crisis, that we can continue in governance and help our country develop," Defensor said.
Defensor also dismissed the survey result that movie action king Fernando Poe Jr. now leads the presidentiables and that Arroyo is now running fourth.
He said "statistically it's a tie", because Arroyo has the highest performance rating of 32 percent relative to all the candidates. He said this means Filipinos are "very appreciative" of the performance of the President.
In a November survey conducted by Pulse Asia Inc., it also showed Poe would take on Arroyo.
Pulse Asia said that although the popular Poe was unlikely to be the overall winner, he would damage Arroyo's chances.
Its findings were based on "three of the most likely scenarios" for the presidential race, pitting Arroyo against Poe and other leading contenders, Roco and Lacson.
The poll showed Arroyo might lose to Roco, a former education secretary in her Cabinet, in all three scenarios.
Pulse Asia said if the election turns out to be a three-way race among Arroyo, Poe and Roco, it would be a neck-and-neck fight; with the movie star likely getting 34 percent of the vote, Roco 35 percent and Arroyo 29 percent.
The Pulse Asia survey showed that Arroyo will bag the presidency only in an eight-way contest with Roco, Poe, Lacson, businessman Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., Supreme Court Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr., and Sens. Noli de Castro and Aquilino Pimentel Jr.
No disaster
Poe's popular rating bothered several sectors but Guingona said a Poe presidency does not necessarily mean a disaster.
Guingona said a second movie star leader for the country need not be a disaster if he (Poe) avoids bad advice.
The financial markets wobbled and the local currency fell to an all-time low against the dollar last week when Poe declared his candidacy.
Many businessmen fear his political inexperience would be bad for the economy and he would pardon his friend Estrada, jailed and on trial for corruption.
Guingona warned that a Poe presidency could be subject to the same temptations, "but it is unfair to say that he (Poe) and (former President Joseph Estrada) Estrada are of the same mould."
Even Estrada, accused of plundering an 80 million-dollar fortune in his 30 months in office, "had the potential" to become a good leader, Guingona said.
"But it seems that his perceptions were influenced by friends whose agenda was not for the good of the nation, but whose agenda was for their own benefit. And they shared the agenda with him, including the profits."
Guingona admitted, "one of my options was to run" for president, but added without giving details that "circumstances have made me decide not to pursue it." SCT/AFP
(December 4, 2003 issue)
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