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Thursday, March 04, 2004
GMA, FPJ 'statistically tied' in SWS survey
MANILA -- President Arroyo leads over opposition presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. by 1.3 percent in the Feb. 17 to 25 nationwide survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS).
But the 1.3 percent lead of Arroyo over Poe is "statistically insignificant", SWS said, making the survey a virtual tie between the two candidates.
Malacaņang Wednesday welcomed the results of the latest SWS survey and predicted that Arroyo's rating would still rise by three percent to five percent within the next two weeks.
The survey showed that Arroyo was chosen by 31.8 percent of respondents to the SWS survey, while Poe was picked by 30.5 percent. Raul Roco followed with 17.9 percent, Panfilo Lacson with 11.4 percent, Eddie Villanueva with 1.8 percent, and Eddie Gil with no votes. The number of undecided voters is 6.6 percent.
The SWS survey conducted from Feb. 17 to 25 had a margin of error of three percent, Mahar Mangahas said.
The results were a dramatic improvement for Arroyo, who was picked by only 28.7 percent of respondents compared to Poe's 37.5 percent in the previous SWS survey conducted from Jan. 28 to Feb. 6.
In the Jan. 28 to Feb. 6 SWS survey, Poe had a nine-point lead over Arroyo. But the new survey showed a drop in Poe's marks by seven points and an increase in Arroyo's rating by three points.
Poe led in Metro Manila by 11 points and in Luzon by eight points, while Arroyo led in the Visayas by 26 points. Arroyo only led Poe by three points in Mindanao with 41 percent compared to Poe's 38 percent.
In the vice presidential race, Sen. Noli de Castro continued to leave Sen. Loren Legarda in the dust with a score of 57 percent against Legarda's 29 percent.
De Castro attributed the increase in his and Arroyo's ratings to the pulong bayans that they hold during campaign rallies, where they directly answer the questions of the people.
Sen. Manuel Villar said, "There is no doubt that Sen. Noli de Castro will be the country's next vice president."
Villar expressed his support to de Castro and endorsed him in a campaign rally in Las Piņas City.
"De Castro serves as an inspiration to ordinary people who have simple aspirations in life. The people have high hopes that de Castro will help change their lives for the better when he becomes vice president," Villar added.
In La Union, Arroyo could only say, "Thank you. Thank you. Thank you."
Presidential spokesman Ignacio Bunye said Malacaņang is "satisfied with the overall trend of the survey but we know it is time to work harder. The President is not taking the voters for granted."
Presidential campaign spokesman Michael Defensor attributed Arroyo's rising ratings to the people in the administration's campaign machinery and to Poe's statement that he will not appear in the presidential debate.
Defensor said he expects Arroyo's rating to rise by three percent to five percent in the next survey. He said she will pull away once the local candidates are allowed to campaign starting March 25 because the administration has candidates in all areas compared to the opposition's 60 percent coverage.
He also said Poe's camp and potential supporters are dismayed by the actor's decision not to join the debate. He said Poe is not like former president Joseph Estrada who has a clearer policy and more conviction in all issues.
Poe, the country's biggest movie star, is widely popular but there are growing concerns about his qualifications for the presidential job as he is a high-school drop-out with no experience in public service.
Poe campaign spokesman Francis Escudero dismissed the latest poll results, saying the overwhelming response of Poe was getting at campaign rallies showed the depth of his support.
He suggested that perhaps Arroyo's rise in the surveys would make her followers desist from challenging Poe's citizenship and his qualifications to run for president.
Opposition figures have charged that the Arroyo camp is behind the petitions questioning Poe's citizenship in a move to discourage people from voting for him and to scare away potential campaign contributions.
Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr., of the opposition's Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP) believes the disqualification case against Poe is to blame for the drop in the ratings of the movie actor in the SWS survey.
Pimentel said the survey, which showed that Poe has slipped from first place to second, has worried them.
"That is very disturbing. The disqualification case could be a factor. It would raise question of practicality on the part of the people voting for FPJ," Pimentel added.
He added that despite the lead of President Arroyo by a small percentage, he still believes that the President is the number one rival of Poe.
In the senatorial race, seven administration and five opposition candidates made it to the Magic 12.
* Aquilino Pimentel Jr. (opposition) 41 percent;
* Ramon Revilla Jr. (administration) and John Osmeņa (administration), both 40 percent;
* Manuel Roxas II (administration), 35 percent;
* Alfredo Lim (opposition) and Rodolfo Biazon (administration), both 34 per cent;
* Juan Ponce Enrile (opposition), 32 percent;
* Ernesto Maceda (opposition), 31 percent;
* Manuel "Lito" Lapid (administration), 29 percent;
* Jinggoy Estrada (opposition) and Robert Barbers (administration), both 28 percent;
* Miriam Defensor-Santiago (administration), 27 percent;
* Orlando Mercado (administration), 26 percent; and
* Robert Jaworski (administration) and Ernesto Herrera (opposition), both 25 percent.
Next in the race are: 16-17. Francisco Tatad (KNP) and Richard Gordon (K4) 23 percent; 18. Pia Cayetano (K4) 22 percent; 19. Jamby Madrigal (KNP) 20 percent; 20. Heherson Alvarez (Ind.) 16 percent; 21-22. Boots Anson-Roa (KNP) and Amina Rasul (KNP), 14 percent; 23. Carlos Padilla (LDP) 13 percent; and Frank Chavez (Reporma LM) 12 percent.
The most noticeable change from the Jan. 16 to 22 SWS poll is that Mar Roxas scores 35 percent or an increase of 11 points, thus vaulting to 4th from only 17th before. He took a slot away from Orly Mercado, whose score of 26 percent, a decrease of 4 points, resulted in a drop to 13th, from 10th in January.JMR/JPM
(March 4, 2004 issue)
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