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Thursday, May 06, 2004
Ex-president pulling election strings from prison (10:52 a.m.)
MANILA--Ex-president Joseph Estrada looms large over next week's elections as he plots to bring down Gloria Arroyo, the woman he blames for driving him from the presidency and sending him to jail.
Six years after the former matinee idol was elected by a stunning margin of six million votes, his looks have faded and his arthritis has worsened as he awaits trial on corruption charges stemming from his rule.
His freewheeling era was brought to an abrupt halt in January 2001 by a military-backed popular revolt that installed then vice president Arroyo as his successor, creating deep divisions within Philippine society.
To Estrada's vast following among the poor and working class, the upper class Arroyo and the business elite stole the presidency three years ago and the May 10 elections are an opportunity for revenge.
From his prison cell Estrada was instrumental in convincing his long-time acting buddy and fellow film star Fernando Poe to stand against Arroyo, and former member of his cabinet, Horacio Morales, is running the campaign.
"Show your opposition to this illegal regime that has seized the rights of the people," Estrada says in a taped message played at a Poe campaign.
Poe's campaign has touched on the injustice of Estrada's fall, and played on Poe's movie star persona as an honest champion of the underdog against the evil, corrupting system.
But while Poe is hugely popular, he lacks Estrada's magnetism and dynamism on the campaign trail. He has blown a 10-point lead in the opinion polls, and most surveys now put Poe between three and five points behind Arroyo.
After first dismissing Arroyo as a "patsy", Estrada now fears the opposition will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. His former police chief Panfilo Lacson has launched a breakaway presidential bid and is now polling 11 percent of votes.
The stakes for the country's most famous prisoner are enormous. He faces life in jail or the death penalty if found guilty. Though Poe has denied any deal, most Filipinos believe he would pardon his friend if he won.
Estrada has brokered several Poe-Lacson meetings in an attempt to unite the opposition, but his mediation has now collapsed.
The former president's frustrations finally boiled over after reports that the influential Iglesia ni Cristo sect, which helped him win in 1998, had chosen to back Arroyo.
"I cannot do anything because I'm in jail," he raged.
Arroyo has been careful not to isolate her former nemesis and has gone out of her way to woo his supporters. Over 50 percent of the Philippines' estimated 84 million people live on less than two dollars a day, and they are likely to decide Monday's vote.
Tens of thousands of Manila slum dwellers laid siege to the Malacañang presidential palace in May 2001 shortly after Estrada and his son, movie star Jinggoy, were arrested and indicted for fraud.
And in the run-up to the election, Arroyo has treated Estrada with kid gloves.
Estrada has been allowed to visit his ailing mother and stay for extended periods at his resort home near his military jail. The government has also offered him a diplomatic passport to allow him to fly to the United States for knee surgery, an offer politely rejected.
And for his birthday Arroyo sent Estrada two golf carts to help him move around his jail and vaguely pledged to form a "government of national unity" if she beat Poe.
The president has faced growing flak over the "country club" detention of a man accused of raking in 80 million of dollars as protection money from gambling syndicates while in office, but she is unrepentant.
"While he is being tried, we will treat president Estrada with dignity," Arroyo said.
Regardless of who wins Monday's vote, the Estradas will remain a force in Philippine politics. Jinggoy Estrada, who is out on bail, is expected to win a seat in the Senate where he will team up with his mother. (AFP) |
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