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Friday, May 07, 2004
Arroyo inches ahead in poll, coup rumors swirl (12:35 p.m.)
MANILA -- Four days before the elections, President Arroyo appeared to be pulling away from her challengers after a bitter campaign that has revealed deep faultlines within the country.
Already buoyed by a small but improving lead in opinion polls over main rival, film star Fernando Poe Jr., Arroyo late Thursday received the backing of two influential Christian sects -- the Iglesia ni Cristo and El-Shaddai.
The Iglesia in particular has been an electoral force in the mainly Catholic Southeast Asian nation for decades and is expected to deliver a bloc of one million votes in Monday's poll.
"If this were a boxing match, the President would win by a knock-out and not by a split decision," said Arroyo's spokesman Mike Defensor, although most analysts believe the vote will be close.
"I believe Arroyo will now be able to make it," said Rizal Buendia, a political analyst at De La Salle University. "But be prepared for trouble if it is a tight race."
Arroyo, 57, is seeking a six-year mandate from the 43 million electorate after coming to power in a military-supported uprising in 2001, which deposed Joseph Estrada, an ex-film star under house arrest charged with corruption.
A US-trained economist, she has presented herself as a safer pair of hands to manage the economy than Poe, who left school at 15 and whose inexperience has alarmed the business elite and financial markets.
Responding to optimism about an Arroyo victory, the peso this week rose to its highest level against the dollar in 16 weeks.
Poe, 64, is a close friend of Estrada and has portrayed himself as an honest man unsullied by the notoriously dirty politics of the Philippines. Most Filipinos believe Estrada is financing the campaign in exchange for a pardon.
Poe is adored by the poor because of his screen roles playing an underdog superhero battling for the oppressed, but his stumbling campaign and lack of policy platform have seen him blow a significant poll lead.
The latest opinion poll by the Pulse Asia group gave Arroyo 37 percent of the vote compared to 31 percent for Poe. Former police chief Panfilo Lacson polled 11 percent, independent candidate Raul Roco seven percent and television evangelist Eddie Villanueva five percent.
Monday's elections in the former Spanish and American colony will be a complicated exercise in democracy spread across the 7,100 islands making up the Philippine archipelago.
As well as direct elections for president and vice president, voters will be asked to choose 12 senators, 200 congressmen and over 48,000 local posts from around 400,000 candidates. Turnout-out in 1998 was around 80 percent.
The security forces have been placed on alert amid fears the Al-Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf or Jemaah Islamiyah groups are planning attacks. Arroyo is a key Asian ally of the United States and has sent a contingent of troops to Iraq.
The opposition has tapped into anger over the removal of Estrada among the poor, many of whom believe then vice president Arroyo and the elite conspired to bring down the unorthodox film star.
The dispute has fuelled rumors and unsubstantiated allegations that elements within the armed forces are preparing to stage a coup if their favored candidate does not win.
The presidential elections are only the third since dictator Ferdinand Marcos was forced out of power 18 years ago, and the fragile Philippine democracy was tested by a military rebellion in July last year.
Arroyo's camp Thursday accused the opposition of planning violent unrest on election day as a pretext for a coup. Poe's spokesman rejected the allegation.
The election battle has been fought largely on personality, ignoring many economic and social problems.
Around half the 84 million people live on less than two dollars a day, while total debt is estimated at US$100 billion. Foreign investment was just 319 million dollars last year, compared to 1.8 billion in 1992.
Muslim and Communist insurgencies have been festering for decades, and despite having the highest population growth in Asia, birth control is not publicly discussed to avoid angering the Roman Catholic church. AFP |
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