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Friday, May 07, 2004
Poor vote crucial for presidential race (10:30 a.m.)
MANILA -- It has often been said that the poor, who make up the bulk of the population in the country, voted without thinking and were prone to manipulation.
But a study by the Institute of Philippine Culture (IPC) shattered many of these myths ahead of Monday's elections pitting President Arroyo against movie star Fernando Poe Jr.
The study found that far from being dumb, the poor vote was a thinking vote in the Southeast Asian nation.
"The poor have always been blamed for poor politics in this country," Dr. Filomeno Aguilar who heads the IPC, a social science research organization of the Ateneo de Manila University, told AFP.
He said the study has shown that the poor do know what leader they want.
"They value good leadership. But the electoral process fails to give them good leaders," he said.
"They recognize the importance of elections to the life of the nation but at the same time they approach elections with deep ambivalence. To them it is both a duty and a game of chance."
The poor as a category are difficult to define.
Survey organizations, however, refer to lower-income groups as belonging to D and E classes that are estimated to make up as much as 93 percent of the some 43 million Filipino voters.
According to the Social Weather Stations (SWS), the D class, which makes up 60 percent of all voters, comprises lower-middle class households "who have some comfort and means but basically thrive on a hand-to-mouth existence."
The E class comprises 33 percent of households and the extremely lower class "who find it difficulty meeting their basic survival needs."
It is the D and E class voters both the main presidential contenders need to win over on election day.
Arroyo owes her position now to the D and E class voters. During her election as vice president in 1998, she enjoyed an absolute majority of the votes among the lower and poorest classes. In the D class, she polled 51.1 percent and E, 52.4 percent.
For his part, movie star Joseph Estrada polled 91 percent of the D and E class voters six years ago.
In the Philippines, "elections go where the 'masa' (masses) goes," said Manila pollster Mahar Mangahas.
Analysts said the vote could go the way of the 1998 presidential contest, when movie star Estrada whipped the best that the divided ruling class could offer by carrying the "masa" vote.
In the latest SWS poll released late last month Arroyo was ahead of Poe by 4.5 points.
But in the so-called E class of voter -- the slum dwellers and farmhands who make up the poorest of the poor -- Poe has an 11-point advantage over Arroyo.
AC Nielsen and other market research firms here say the lower classes comprise 90 percent of the population. Less than a million out of the country's 82 million people are considered rich.
Herman Kraft, a political scientist with the University of the Philippines, does not think Poe commands the same popular support among the poor as Estrada did in 1998.
"Last election Estrada was leading by a huge majority. Even the outgoing president, Fidel Ramos, could not do anything about it," he told AFP.
"The poor will vote for Poe but I doubt whether it will be a block vote as in 98.
"Estrada was an experienced politician and he had experienced campaign managers running his election. Poe, on the other hand, does not have the political experience, does not trust politicians and has surrounded himself with his movie star friends." AFP |
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