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Sunday, May 09, 2004
Philippines readies to vote, Arroyo in driving seat (11:30 a.m.)
MANILA -- The Philippines votes Monday to elect a new president after a bitter campaign that has left incumbent Gloria Arroyo heading for reelection of a deeply-divided country.
The run-up to the polls in the Southeast Asian nation has been marred by allegations of fraud and rumors that competing factions in the military are plotting a coup or violent unrest.
A final independent opinion poll on the eve of the election gave Arroyo, a tough US-trained economist, a lead of seven percentage points over her main challenger Fernando Poe Jr., the Philippines' best-known film star.
"The momentum seems to be on the side of Arroyo. If there are no startling developments ... I believe it is going to be Arroyo," said Antonio Gatmaitan of the Political Economy Applied Research Institute.
The presidential polls are only the third since dictator Ferdinand Marcos was forced out 18 years ago, and the fragile democracy has been repeatedly tested by coups, including an uprising in July last year.
The removal of ex-president Joseph Estrada in a military-backed uprising in January 2001 remains the cause of much bitterness. Many poor believe their champion was unlawfully pushed out by vice president Arroyo and the elite.
Estrada remains under arrest at a military camp charged with fraud, while Arroyo is seeking a six-year mandate from the 43-million-strong electorate of the mainly Roman Catholic archipelago of 7,100 islands.
The head of the Catholic church has warned of plots to rig the polls and has urged priests to protect democracy. The National Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) has also mobilized 300,000 independent poll monitors.
In an attempt to defuse tension ahead of polling day, former president Corazon Aquino has invited all five presidential candidates to a unity mass at San Agustin Cathedral in Manila on Sunday.
In a final message, Arroyo Saturday appealed for an end to the "air of hate and recrimination" gripping the country and warned the armed forces to stay out of politics.
Arroyo, 57, a key Asian ally of the United States, has presented herself as a safer pair of hands to manage the economy than Poe, who left school at 15 and whose inexperience has panicked financial markets.
Poe, 64, is a close friend of Estrada and has portrayed himself as an honest man unsullied by the dirty politics of the Philippines. Many Filipinos believe Estrada is financing Poe in exchange for a pardon.
Poe is adored by the poor because of his screen roles playing an underdog superhero battling for the oppressed, but a disastrous campaign has seen him blow a significant opinion poll lead.
The resource-rich Philippines was once one of the richest countries in Asia, but half a century of corruption and instability have made it one of the poorest.
Around half the population live on under two dollars per day, and vast wealth is concentrated in the hands of several hundred families.
The election has largely ignored the key issues -- an under-performing economy and looming debt crisis, Islamic militant terrorism, population growth and decades-old Muslim and Communist insurgencies.
Fears of bombings by the Al-Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf or Jemaah Islamiyah groups have triggered a nationwide security alert for the elections, including an extra 17,000 police and troops on the streets of the capital Manila.
Over 90 people have been killed during the election campaign, mostly in local disputes or in violence linked to Communist rebels.
The polls will open at 7 a.m. and close at 3 p.m. Filipinos will be asked to vote for a president, vice president, 12 senators, 212 congressmen and over 17,000 local posts.
Counting is expected to be slow with the presidential vote taking over a week, but the respected independent Social Weather Stations (SWS) group is promising a credible exit poll around 24 hours after polls close.
The final SWS survey gave Arroyo 37 percent, Poe 30 percent, former police chief Panfilo Lacson 11 percent, reformer Raul Roco six percent and television evangelist Eddie Villanueva four percent. AFP |
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