Tuesday, January 23, 2007 Malig: Political surveys By Jun A. Malig Cognition
OVER the weekend, I received an email from the Independent Survey Group, Inc.-Pampanga about the surveys it conducted sometime last month on the possible gubernatorial contest between Pampanga Governor Mark Lapid and Second District Board Member Lilia "Baby" Pineda and vice gubernatorial match between business executive Paul "Concon" Laus and Lubao Mayor Dennis Pineda.
Commissioned by Lapid's camp, the surveys apparently sought to establish Mark's "win-ability" against Baby, wife of Rodolfo "Bong" Pineda, and Concon's chances, as a neophyte in the political arena against Dennis. Some news reports in the last quarter of 2006 indicated that the soft-spoken Lubao mayor was being groomed by his supporters to run for vice governor.
Below was the response I received on Sunday from the Independent Survey Group, Inc.-Pampanga after I asked about the methodology and related technicalities used in the surveys:
"Attached herewith are the details of the survey we provided. The method used is universal. The number of registered voters in each town is divided into the total number of registered voters in the province. The quotient is then multiplied to the total number of respondents, which is 5,000. e.g. Mabalacat number of registered voters / 1,079,144 (total number of registered voters in Pampanga)= quotient x 5,000 = 463 (the number of respondents for Mabalacat, out of the 5,000).
The enumerators are five per team. There were 10 teams of enumerators assigned last month to finish the survey within one week. The enumerators do not know who commissioned them for the survey. Only the point person of ISGi-Pampanga gave them instructions."
The gubernatorial survey showed that about 71 percent of the respondents would still vote for Mark, 14 percent would vote for Lilia, and 15 percent have yet to decide on whom to support in the upcoming elections. The vice gubernatorial survey seemed more interesting: Concon with 31 percent and Dennis with 39 percent (only eight percent difference). Some 29 percent of the respondents were undecided.
Vice Governor Joseller "Yeng" Guiao's name was not included in the vice gubernatorial survey apparently because the survey was conducted at a time when he was still bent on running for congressman in the first district. (From mid 2006 until the start of this year, reliable sources and news reports confirm Yeng's decision not to seek re-election.)
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I am pretty sure that Baby's camp has also commissioned a similar survey. Of course, if the results are satisfactory, it could be released for media consumption. But if the survey shows an unacceptable statistics, the lady board member would have to just use the survey to pinpoint the particular areas in the province where extra efforts and resources are needed to win the votes of the residents.
Reliable sources say that the powerful Pineda clan of Lubao is not a stranger to political surveys. They said the Pinedas have commissioned credible survey and research groups in the past elections that enabled them to know the probable results in electoral contests even before the voters actually cast their votes.
Well, there's no doubt that the Mark vs. Lilia "battle royale" would be a really interesting political contest, not just for their allies and supporters, but also for media practitioners and voters. But for several simple yet politically observant folk in my community, Mark's asset is still his popularity, while Baby is believed to have a lot to spend in her campaign to oust the young Lapid from the Provincial Capitol. Many expect the political battle to turn into a full-scale political war as the elections day gets nearer.
