THE Philippines needs to be "cold and calculative," as well as open itself to backchannel negotiations, when dealing with China on the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) dispute, a leading geopolitical analyst said.
Dr. Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, said on Wednesday that the Philippines must be careful on how it deals with China.
"In a way, we need to be a bit less hot and scandalous, a lot more cold and calculative," he said during a lecture.
He added that the Philippines must also stop provoking China by playing the tensions raised by the dispute in the media.
Batongbacal related that in the mid-1990s, China already warned the Philippines "to please not play it up in the media too much because they will be unable to control the reaction from home."
"That's what we are seeing right now, exactly what they said they feared," the professor added.
Chinese sentiments about the West Philippine Sea have been dramatic in recent years, especially coming from the hardliners and conservatives in the Communist Party.
A look into the editorials, opinions and comments both on mainstream media and on online forums showed that Chinese nationals are passionate about the issue.
Some groups have even criticized the government of being too soft against its dealings with the Philippines.
Batongbacal also supported suggestions that a backchannel negotiation may do the Philippines and China good.
He said that filing the arbitration case and forging a strengthened defense relationship with the United States--something that China has frowned upon--doesn't mean other avenues are already closed.
He added that both governments should also "try to improve at least certain aspects or manifestations to the dispute" such as not including small fishermen in the issue.
China and the Philippines should also establish direct communications.
"It's even more important right now to have direct line to each other because the greatest danger is like what happened to Paracels," wherein two fishermen got into an argument, forcing the Chinese nationals to call their Coast Guard.
"And before you know it, we're totally dislodged from that area. You can bet that if ever incidents arise that could be portrayed as provocation on our part, we will be ejected from all those positions," Batongbacal said.
Although both countries deny that its ties have been altered by the dispute, the professor and geopolitical analyst feared that "it seems like every aspect of Philippines-China relations right now has been hijacked and dominated" by it.
It is clear, he added, that the dispute is the only thing going on between the two countries.
Any activity in the disputed region, whether it is China's massive reclamation projects or the presence of Filipino fishermen, can be seen as a provocation.
"Anybody on the island makes a mistake could easily be described as a provocation and it could be an excuse for a more forceful response," Batongbacal said.
"That's why we are at a critical stage in our relations. As long as the tensions are high and two parties are not dialing down, that kind of situation could easily come into peak," he added.
Presidential Communications Operations Office Secretary Herminio Coloma Jr. said that the Philippines remains firm with its position on the need to respect the freedom of navigation and freedom of aviation in the disputed area.
He issued the statement following reports that Chinese Navy warned off a United States plane, which flew near the artificial islands that Beijing created in the disputed waters of South China Sea.
He reiterated that the Aquino administration will continue to push for the resolution of the dispute through peaceful means.
"Habang kinikilala natin na mayroong tensyon, pursigido pa rin tayo at determinado pa rin tayong isulong ‘yung ating posisyon sa pamamagitan ng pagtalima sa international law," the Palace official added.
The Philippines has filed a petition before the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal against China's claim over the West Philippine Sea, including those areas within the 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone of other countries.
Coloma said the West Philippine Sea issue might be discussed during President Benigno Aquino III's state visit to Japan on June 2 to 5.
Since March last year, China has expanded at least seven reefs in the resource-rich region, which could lead to its de facto control of the reclaimed islands in the future.
China claims almost 90 percent of the 3.5-million-square-kilometer sea that is also home to about $5 trillion of annual global trade.
Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei are also claimants. (CVB/SDR/Sunnex)