PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte always takes pride in telling the Filipinos that China is helping the Philippines. United States (US) and European Union do not consider this statement as music to their ears. Many believe that our president is just playing political poker to those who befriend him, to those who dislike him.
The China-Philippines relationship has reached another dramatic sub-plot when our president (after his China trip) revealed that China will go to war if the Philippines will drill oil in the portion of the South China Sea claimed by our country. Could this be the end of new friendship? Our president admitted that the Philippines is not yet ready to engage in a fight with China.
Let us try to understand what is in China. Some political analysts believe that China is the fastest growing economy in the world with what maybe the fastest growing military budget. It has nuclear weapons and border disputes with most of its neighbors. By now, China is an economic giant. (I thought that my black Fossil watch is made in America. In its box it states that packaging has been made in China.)
China is also a potential military colossus bent on modernizing its maritime and air capabilities, but Beijing is also aware that the United States is spinning a web of security alliance around China’s borders and that the US has only one goal, “the hegemonic domination of the world.” America is waiving its flag of friendship to the world but it is treating China as if it is inevitably hostile and dangerous, and is more likely to become hostile and dangerous. Another political poker game?
China always puts its armed forces on high alert to militarily prevent Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province. Not only President Duterte is playing poker politics, President Xi Jinping is also in the same card game. Experts don’t believe that China will go to war. China is more interested in economic power and diplomatic stature than territorial expansion by force. In the case of the Philippines, our leaders more than six years ago allowed the Chinese to build infrastructure in what we claimed to be ours. That is our political sin of omission.
One of the priority goals of China is to concentrate on becoming the recognized dominant country in Asia, so as to recover its lost historic “suzerainty,” or accepted deference and respect, from its neighbors.
China’s giant leap in nuclear weapon technology is made clear by having a missile with significant range to cross the Pacific Ocean in response to the US plan to place parts of Asia (including Taiwan) under an American antimissile protective shield.
Once Napoleon Bonaparte said, “Let China sleep; when China awakens, the world will tremble.” China has now awakened and President Duterte was there when the Dragon yawned. That could be one for political analysts who believe that China was once and future power.
If we have to speak of the wealth of nations, another school of politics makes a forecast that to date China has pressing domestic challenges: its slowing economy, polluted environment, widespread corruption, perilous financial markets, non-existent social safety net, rapidly aging population, and restive middle class. I would like to believe that its true Achilles’ heel on the world stage is its low level of technological expertise compared with America.
Economists call Chinese exports as “processing trade,” meaning that parts are imported into China for assembly (just like my watch) and then exported afterward. The Chinese provide cheap labor. The vast majority of these Chinese exports are directed not by Chinese firms but by corporations from more developed countries. “Something in you is an American product made in China.” When I was in Japan I bought a Japanese doll for my god daughter and that was made in China.
Personally, I can only conclude that I don’t have a full knowledge of China’s inclusive wealth: manufactured capital (roads, buildings, machines, and equipment); human capital (skills, education, health); and natural capital (sub-soil resources, ecosystem, the atmosphere). Gauging China’s economy is like judging a company by its quarterly profits, without peeking at the balance sheet. We don’t want to conclude based on speculation.
In military parlance, China is not ever sure of its “command of the commons,” that is control over the air, space, and the open sea, along with the necessary infrastructure for managing these domains. A giant economy alone won’t make China the world’s second superpower.
Are we going to war with China? We ask our leaders to know if they have balls or flowers.