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Thursday, August 22, 2019

Near-normal rainfall likely in most PH areas this June

MANILA -- The country may generally experience near-normal rainfall this June, the weather state bureau said Thursday, June 1.

"Such rainfall is possible then in about 66 provinces nationwide," said Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) climate prediction and monitoring section officer-in-charge Analiza Solis.

The near-normal rainfall's mean may range from 276.9 millimeter (mm) in Luzon to 228.1 mm in the Visayas and 211.8 mm in Mindanao, Pagasa's forecast show.

However, above-normal rainfall can occur in 13 provinces this June, she said.

Pagasa identified the provinces as Ifugao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Marinduque, Bohol and Siquijor.

The agency also forecast below-normal rainfall in Davao del Sur, this month when mean precipitation there may reach 153.2 mm only.

According to Solis, weather systems that can affect the country from June to November 2017 are the rain-driving southwest monsoon or 'habagat,' inter-tropical convergence zone, thunderstorms, low-pressure area and tropical cyclones (TCs).

Ridge of a high-pressure area can also affect the country then, she noted.

Pagasa expects the annual transition from 'habagat' to the northeast monsoon or 'amihan' later this year.

Last month, Pagasa declared the onset of 'habagat' and the country's rainy season this year.

For June 2017, Pagasa forecast one or two TCs in the Philippine area of responsibility.

Also possible in the country's area of responsibility are two or three TCs this July, two to four TCs in August and September, one to three TCs in October and one or two TCs in November, Pagasa continued.

Pagasa's El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) Alert System remains on 'inactive' status despite looming possibility for return of the drought-driving El Niño phenomenon this year.

"Nearly equal probability for Enso-neutral and weak El Niño are likely in 2017," said Solis, citing Pagasa's latest assessment.

She said Pagasa will continue monitoring developments in the Pacific and international meteorological centers' forecasts to determine need for activating the Enso alert system.

Experts said Enso is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño and La Niña phenomenon are Enso cycle's opposite extremes, they added. (PNA)
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